Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and isolated storms return to the region late Monday through Wednesday.

- A threat for more typical spring time severe weather may evolve late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

After a cool morning, temperatures will climb into the lower 70s under sunny skies this afternoon. An area of surface high pressure is located off to our northeast and will continue to pull away from the area later today resulting in easterly winds across the region. Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies across Central and North Texas, but overcast conditions are in place just to our south. As low level flow become more southerly tonight, it will tap into a moisture rich western Gulf and we should see these low clouds begin to spread back to the north.

A weak disturbance will move across Baja California overnight with weak height falls spreading into far west Texas. Modest isentropic ascent will commence ahead of this disturbance and should result in an axis of deep moisture oriented from southeast to northwest through Central Texas. We'll likely see low clouds spread into our southwest counties by morning and scattered showers will develop through midday. While we can't rule out a few storms, most of this activity will be higher based rain showers. There will likely be a sharp gradient in rain/clouds across our southwest counties to mostly sunny skies in our northeast counties which will result in a gradient of high temperatures from near 60 to the mid 70s.

Dunn

LONG TERM

(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

As the upper disturbance moves across Texas late Monday night, stronger forcing for ascent will spread across the region and we should see an uptick in showers and elevated thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The bulk of this activity should stay to the south of I-20 but we can't rule out some measurable rainfall as far north as the Red River. The threat for any severe weather is very low given a lack of appreciable instability, although the strongest storms could produce quite a bit of lightning and perhaps a little small hail. Otherwise, this precipitation should begin to move east during the day Tuesday as the stronger forcing pulls away from North Texas. In the absence of any clearing frontal boundary, low level moisture will remain in place through mid week and weak lift will support some low rain chances through Wednesday, particularly east of I-35.

By Thursday, we'll see a setup more in line with a typical spring pattern with ample low level moisture capped beneath a modest elevated mixed layer to the east of a dryline. A shortwave trough will be spreading into the Central Plains during this time and severe storms should develop mainly to our north. With the strongest forcing for ascent displaced to our north, it'll be difficult to get storms to develop south of the Red River with the expected capping, but if one or two can develop, they would likely be severe. As the main trough moves eastward, a weak frontal boundary will slide south late Friday and should be a focus for additional convective development. Right now, we'll keep PoPs around 20% late Thursday through Saturday and continue to monitor for any severe potential.

Dunn

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR with easterly flow around 10 kt will prevail through tonight with winds becoming southeast during the day Monday. High clouds will increase in coverage through the period with areas of rain and a few storms developing across Central TX on Monday. Most of this activity will remain to the southwest of the major airports, although some light rain will be possible at Waco from mid morning Monday through the evening hours. Coverage of showers and storms will increase late Monday night into Tuesday and could impact the D10 airspace early Tuesday morning.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.