Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional showers and storms will affect much of North and Central Texas this evening through Sunday morning. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is the main hazard, and a Flood Watch is in effect for much of North Texas.

- A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail are also possible from this afternoon into tonight across the Big Country. - Warmer and rain-free weather will return for most of the upcoming week with heat index values at or above 100 degrees each afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The active pattern continues this afternoon for north Texas with ongoing rain showers mainly northeast of the Metroplex. The upper- level low driving this activity is located over northwest Texas with a dry slot moving in from the southwest. Most of the high clouds have cleared out due to the dry slot but this has allowed for plenty of heating to take place from the Metroplex westward. This, combined with being close to the upper low should lead to increased chances for strong storms to develop late this afternoon across the Big Country then moving into the the Metroplex overnight. Initially, storms will have the potential to produce some hail as they develop and move through the Big Country during peak heating time. Later this evening and overnight, storms should congeal and become heavy rain producers with the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms across the western and northwestern parts of the area. The HREF Mean rainfall totals show areas of 1 to 3 inches for most areas, but some corridors of heavier rainfall are looking more likely. The HREF LPMM shows localized higher total amounts of 6 to 8 inches through tomorrow morning. It is still uncertain where this corridor of heavier rainfall will set up, but areas northwest of a line from Dublin to Sherman can expect to see heavy rain overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing eastward across the Metroplex tomorrow morning as the trough axis moves eastward. Although severe weather chances look low, storms could quickly produce amounts of around one inch for urban areas and lead to localized flooding. Rain chances should decrease tomorrow afternoon as the upper level low finally lifts northeastward towards Kansas City.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The upper-level trough axis should exit the region and into the Midwest by Monday. In it's wake, a subtropical ridge will build in across Texas and persist through much of next week. Rain chances will dry up during this time, but the tradeoff is much sunnier and hotter conditions are anticipated. Model consensus shows 500mb heights of 590dam centered over east Texas with 850mb temperatures of 17-20 deg C each day. There is a low to medium (20 to 50%) chance for surface high temperatures in the upper 90s. In addition, the humidity levels will still be rather high for much of next week with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This would lead to heat indices between 100-107 each afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected throughout the afternoon and evening with scattered clouds at around 2000ft. Another round or two of thunderstorms is anticipated to move in from the west by 06Z and perhaps as early as 04Z. Currently carrying a Prob30 for storms at most TAF sites to account for this although TEMPO groups will likely be needed for later TAF packages as confidence increases. MVFR ceilings should persist behind any thunderstorms tomorrow morning with IFR ceilings looking likely at Waco.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>119-129>134-141.