Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer and drier weather conditions will be the main focus for NE Montana through Wednesday.

- Stormy conditions are expected late Wednesday.

- Windy and much cooler conditions are expected Thursday through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper ridging will continue to build through Wednesday keeping temperatures much above average through midweek. Then an upper trough is expected to move in Wednesday evening and keep temperatures cool for a few days. Windy conditions are expected with the vertically stacked upper low over south-central Canada Thursday-Friday. It'll feel quite a bit colder than Wednesday with wind chills about 20 degrees colder than the temps Thursday!

The Storm Prediction Center is thinking of adding a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for central and northeast Montana Wednesday.

There is a decent chance of precipitation accumulations ranging between two tenths of an inch up to around 0.75 inches from Wednesday through Thursday evening. A reinforcing cold front on Thursday will bring in some strong winds for the area, enough so that the Little Rockies has the potential for a High Wind Watch at some point closer to the actual event. The front will also bring a switch to snow for most locations on Thursday night, and winds are expected to kick up again on Friday. Snow amounts have increased across the northern zones, so this will have to be watched for possible headlines.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Blended NBM90 with Tuesday afternoon winds. Blended NBM90 with Max temp for Wednesday as we are expecting pre-frontal compressional warming. Winds were blended with NBM90 for Wednesday and Wednesday night. TFJ

AVIATION

LAST UPDATE: 1930Z.

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR

DISCUSSION: Dry weather and clear skies are expected throughout the cycle.

WIND: NNW 7 - 12 kts, becoming light East after 00z, then S late tonight then light West Tuesday at 5-15 mph.

GGW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.