Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather today with highs in the 60s and 70s and light winds.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions possible Monday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week with highs in the upper 70s to low 90s.

- Next chance for precipitation (15-35%) arrives Wednesday night/Thursday but the best chances look to be north/east of the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Clear skies and light winds have resulted in temperatures falling into the 20s and 30s this morning, coldest across northwestern portions of the area. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the mid 20s in the northwest to just above freezing in the southeast. Aloft, a ridge currently sits over West Coast, with a trough centered over the Midwest, placing the area under northwesterly flow. A very pleasant day is expected under this northwesterly flow. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s under mostly sunny skies and light winds.

Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Monday ahead of an embedded shortwave trough. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s with mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds gusting 20-25mph combined with low afternoon relative humidity will result in near-critical fire weather conditions across the area. If winds trend higher than the current forecast, fire weather headlines may be needed.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Warm and breezy conditions continue through the middle of the week. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 90s. Wednesday looks to be the windiest day of the forecast period with southerly winds gusting over 40mph possible. The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday night-Thursday, and continue into the weekend. Ensembles continue to indicate that the best chances for precipitation will be north/east of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The gusty northwest winds, dragging in a cooler airmass today, have helped keep highs from escaping out of the upper 50s to low 60s. As result of the gusty conditions with dry relative humidity, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8PM tonight. Please refer to the fire weather section below for more more information.

Winds this evening and tonight will become light. The calm conditions will once again allow temperatures to drop down near to just under freezing (Overnight Lows: upper 20s to low 30s). The coldest temperatures overall will be concentrated towards the northwest portions of the area. Locations near and mainly west of HWY-281 will have the best potential for temperatures to drop below freezing for a few hours tonight (1-6 hours). Given the slightly warmer temperatures compared the the night previous and given the short residence time of the freezing temperatures, a freeze warning was not concentrated at this time. Though the very light winds could break way for a few areas of frost formation (best chances northeast of the Tri-Cities), the lowered RH values overnight (40-65% max) is expected to limit the overall coverage of frost.

The exit of a upper-level Central to North Central Plains trough with an upstream building ridge west of the area, will establish northwest flow aloft through the first part of next week. Temperatures will be on the up and up through Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s and 70s Sunday, upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and the mid- to-upper 80s Tuesday.

Light easterly winds will setup Sunday among a weak surface pressure gradient. Pressure falls to the west with rising pressure to the east on Monday will help sandwich in southerly winds. The next chance for precipitation will not come until Wednesday as the broad ridging pattern transitions over to a slow approaching trough. Though 20-35% PoPs return Wednesday night, the slightly better chances for the week (25-45%) lie Thursday. It is advised not to raise one's hopes quiet yet on meaningful precipitation accumulations as early on QPF forecast keep the area mainly under 0.25" of precipitation (several completely dry areas towards the south and west). The best potential will be concentrated to the north and east.

Besides the weak precipitation chances, stronger and gustier winds look to return to the area Wednesday through Friday afternoon. These stronger winds will likely come as a surface cyclone sweeps through the Northern Plains. Temperatures behind a cold front Thursday will look to knock highs out of the upper 70s and 80s for Friday (upper 50s to mid 60s). Drier conditions with periods of gusty winds will keep fire weather concerns in and around the area next week. For more information regarding the fire weather potential, please refer to the fire weather section below.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with clear skies retaining. Light winds starting out of the northeast this afternoon will blow between 5-15kts all day/night. Directions will gradually turn clockwise towards a southerly orientation by the end of the period. No precipitation or other aviation hazards is expected at this time.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.