Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Exceptionally dry conditions, light winds and a warming trend through Tuesday.

- Wednesday may become a multi-hazard day with fire and storms threats possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

This morning, temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s across the area, and patchy frost is possible. A Freeze Warning has not been issued this morning to prevent warning fatigue when temperatures look to largely remain within a few degrees of freezing.

Today, we warm back up as temperatures climb into the 70s. We'll have a 500 mb ridge building in from the west, which will work to keep the skies most clear, promoting that warming. RH values are forecast to drop to around 10%, but winds largely remain under 20 kts. Greeley and Wichita counties could see some occasional gusts in the 20-23 kts range, leading to briefly critical fire weather condition, however the stronger winds look to remain southwest of the CWA.

Tonight, we'll get some east-southeasterly winds pushing into the CWA. These light winds and the heat from the day will work to keep temperatures from dropping below 30. There is an outside chance a weak streak of 500 mb vorticity forms up some clouds, which may keep temperatures above freezing.

Monday, the bulk of the 500 mb ridge will be over head, keeping the weather docile and warming us up even more. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. This will once again push RH values down near 10-15%, but southerly winds look to remain at or under 15 kts, eliminating critical fire weather concerns. The hot and dry conditions may increase the severity of the drought.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 247 PM MDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Monday still looks to be dry and warm. An upper level ridge looks to still be moving through the region and exiting around Wednesday to Thursday. At the 850 mb level there looks to be a high pressure system that is located just to the south over Texas extending north over the region. For the temperatures the highs look to be in the mid to high 80s and lows in the lower to mid 30s. As for Relative Humidity (RH) there is a 50-95% chance of seeing RH values less than 15% for Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties in Colorado. The highest percentages are west of Hwy 385. As for wind gusts, guidance is still showing winds being in the lower teens. Guidance has also showed decrease in the percentage of exceeding 25 mph as we get closer to Monday. If we were to see 25 mph gusts is still would be Wichita, Greeley, Graham, Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in the County Warning Area (CWA). Moving on to Tuesday the pattern looks similar to Monday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and lows into the 40s. There is a possibility of reaching the 90s for a high for the eastern portion of the CWA. Guidance is showing about a 20- 50% of exceeding 90 degrees. As for the wind gust guidance has shown a bump in the winds for Tuesday afternoon into the night. The probability of exceeding 25 mph specifically for Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne Counties in CO go from 20-30% in the afternoon to 40- 60%. RH values still look to be lower teens for the majority of of CWA. One thing to note for both Monday and Tuesday is that we do get some relief with rebounding RH overnight as we cool back down in the overnight hours. Guidance shows there bing the probability of reaching 50% is around a 40-80% chance.

Wednesday and Thursday are still showing signs of seeing both fire and precipitation chances. The ridge will move out of our region and a trough will move in. There are still signs that there will be a dryline set up over the CWA with a low pressure system just to the north. Currently there are still some uncertainty on the location and timing of the system. There are still some disagreements with the dryline being set up over and the movement of it. For temperatures the highs look to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Wednesday. Thursday has a wider range from the low 70s to low 80s.

For the dryline, the moist side of dryline winds look to be out of the south. With dew points in the mid 40s to 50s. PoPs look to show 15-25 range with the greatest values in the southern Nebraska. Winds come from the south with speeds staying around 20-30 mph. The dry side of the line shows RH values in the lower teens with winds still staying from the south. Wind gusts look to be in the 30-50 mph range. The peak values for Wednesday look to be in the afternoon into the night. One scenario to look at is the fire weather concern. Especially for the dryline. Currently Guidance is showing the dryline being around Hwy 25 in Kansas. West of the dryline shows the potential for critical fire weather. For the eastern colorado counties there is a 70-90% chance of exceeding 25 mph and a 30-45% chance of exceeding 45 mph. Looking at the GDFI values the begin Wednesday morning around 30-50 the grow to up to 144.0 around 21z then decreasing around 3z Thursday. These conditions show signs of supporting explosive fire growth along with the wind gusts and RH vales support critical fire weather being met on Wednesday and Thursday. Once again there is a fair amount of uncertainty with the timing and location of the system since it is about five days out. However there is a signal of there being critical fire weather conditions in the CWA during this event. As the event moves closer there will still need to be more investigation on the timing and location.

Friday shows precipitation chances to return with the PoPs being in the 20-30s mainly north of I-70 and West of KS Hwy 27. For temperatures the highs look to be in the 60s and lows in the 30s- 40s. Wind gusts look to be in the 20-40 mph range. Saturday looks very similar to Friday with highs in the 60s with lows in the low 30s. Winds look to be weaker with gust peaking around 20-30 mph. PoPs also show some signs of there being precip with values staying in the 20-35 range for majority of the CWA. Given this is 6-7 days out there is still uncertainty but still good to see signs of seeing moisture for the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

GLD: Excellent aviation conditions. VFR conditions and light/ variable winds will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus at or above ~20 KFT AGL. Light southerly winds are expected early Mon afternoon, at or near the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Excellent aviation conditions. VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with cloud cover confined to occasional wisps of cirrus at or above ~20 KFT AGL. Light/variable winds will prevail through this afternoon. Winds are expected to shift to the E and modestly increase to ~10-15 knots around or shortly before sunset (~01Z) this evening. E winds will decrease to 5-10 knots overnight (06-12Z Mon) and may become variable around sunrise Mon. Winds will remain light through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period, becoming SE or S by early afternoon.

GLD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. CO...None. NE...None.