Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to increase wind gusts across southern NH and far southern ME today. This should also result in drier air mixing down, resulting in low relative humidity values.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A trough slowly departs over the next couple days, with drier and warmer temperatures to follow.

2. A moderating temperature trend continues with mainly dry conditions from late week into the weekend. These drier conditions may allow for increasing fire weather concerns this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The upper level trough slowly pivots through eastern Maine and the Canadian Maritimes during the day today, and only slowly moves away through Friday. This brings a couple more rounds of showers through the area, with the main one swinging through northern and eastern areas through mid morning. Then, scattered pop up showers remain possible this afternoon with the trough nearby kicking off some instability showers. This will mainly be focused across the higher terrain in Maine and parts of central Maine.

Across New Hampshire, drier conditions steadily move in through the day, bringing more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs warm into the 50s to near 60 across central and southern New Hampshire. Northwesterly wind also become gusty by the afternoon hours, with gusts of 25-35 mph likely across New Hampshire and southwest Maine. Across NH, RH values drop through the day as drier air arrives, increasing the risk for fire weather concerns.

Drying continues overnight and on Friday as broad high pressure settles across New England. A cooler airmass accompanies the high, but with more sunshine highs warm into the 50s again on Friday. Winds ease tomorrow, lessening fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A mid-level trough pushes to the east of center on Friday, allowing for a slight moderation in temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 50s through the weekend, with perhaps some low 60s to start the next week. A very dry airmass will likely remain overhead through the weekend, and could allow for fires to spread quickly, especially Thursday and Friday afternoon. Relative humidity is forecast to bottom out in the 25-45% range with humidity improving through the weekend. Despite improvements in humidity, it will not be enough, and dry air could deflect some much needed rain to the south of the region on Sunday. The next opportunity for more substantial precipitation doesn't look to arrive until mid-next week.

AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...Ceilings remain MVFR with SCT to BKN IFR at most terminals through the overnight hours, with the lowest conditions likely along the coast and towards AUG/RKD. Ceilings improve in the 11 to 13z window for interior and coastal terminals this morning. Northwesterly wind gusts increase rapidly this morning, with 25-30kt likely from LEB into southern NH terminals like MHT and CON. Winds subside late afternoon into evening.

Outlook:

Friday-Monday: Breezy NW winds continue Friday, becoming lighter under high pressure this weekend. The lack of a stronger background wind field may result in afternoon sea breeze winds Sat and Sun. VFR expected.

MARINE

Shallow surface inversion should keep most of the coastal waters below SCA criteria today as a weak disturbance passes over the Gulf of Maine. Some NW gusts to 25 kts can't be ruled out in the bays/harbors as inland areas will be more gusty. High pressure will then advance towards the region for Friday through the weekend. Light and variable winds are expected into early next week, with seas of 1-3 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

The return of dry weather and gusty winds today will lead to southern NH dropping below 30 percent relative humidity with wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Winds diminish a little Fri but remain breezy with the area of sub-30 percent minimum relative humidity expanding northeastward into western Maine. Dry weather looks to continue thru the weekend, with low chances of wetting rain through the beginning of next week.

GYX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.