Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trade winds will persist through the weekend and at least the first half of next week, pushing showers over mostly windward and mauka locations.

DISCUSSION

Current (as of 3am), satellite and radar trends show low level clouds and scattered showers ongoing across the island chain mainly impacting windward and mauka locations. A 1030 mb high far north of the islands will remain in place through the first half of next week. Stable and breezy trade winds expected. Showers will mainly impact windward and mauka locations particularly in the overnight to early morning hours.

By the later half of next week, a front passing far to the north of the islands could push the surface high pressure east, decreasing trade wind speeds.

AVIATION

Moderate to breezy trades through the weekend. Low cigs and SHRA should primarily imapct windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to a few leeard areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc across windward areas of Oahu Molokai, Maui and the Big Island. Conds should improve later this morning.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of terrain due to breezy trade winds.

MARINE

An area of surface high pressure will reside far northeast of the islands through the remainder of this weekend and help maintain fresh to strong easterly trades. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for all local coastal waters through at least Sunday morning. Trade winds will ease slightly early next week as high pressure once again shifts away to the northeast, though Small Craft Advisories for the typical windy waters surrounding Maui County and the Big Island may still be warranted.

South-southwest swell will gradually fade today and be replaced by mainly background energy. Thus, surf will remain in the 4 to 6 foot or 3 to 5 foot range through Sunday afternoon, near the June average. A fresh, small long- period (18-20 sec) south swell is expected to arrive late Sunday and peak on Monday. The source of this new swell is a storm-force low that passed southeast of New Zealand last weekend. Thus, expect a brief bump up in surf along south facing shores, but still below advisory- level. This swell will gradually fade into midweek.

Along north-facing shores, a small short to medium period north swell will continue to fade over the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Surf along east- facing shores will remain choppy through mid-next week as locally strong trades persist.

HFO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters-