Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk across the lower elevations of central California over the weekend and into next week.

2. Increased fire risk through the weekend, particularly Saturday with low relative humidity and moderate winds.

3. Strong winds expected for the Mojave Desert Slopes, the Kern River Valley and around the San Luis Reservoir until Sunday morning.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough passes over Northern CA today into Sunday. Today's highs remain above average but not as hot as yesterday. The probability of a 90 degree reading today remains at 80-90 percent across much of the San Joaquin Valley, mainly Fresno County southward. For Merced, the chances drop to about 30 percent. The Kern County desert will also see highs reaching into the 90s today. The main concern for this weekend will be increased winds, as the probability for a 30 mph gust towards Pacheco Pass and Lake Isabella are at 60-70 percent, including this afternoon and evening. In addition, the chances for gusts at least 45 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes are at 80-90 percent. Gusty winds will last until Sunday morning.

High temperatures lower further on Sunday with the trough in place over the region. A 90 degree reading remains possible in the warmest locations Sunday until Tuesday, but the chances are much lower (15-25 percent) than they are for today, except 70-80 percent for the Kern County desert for Sunday. Typical highs for this time of year are in the upper 80s, at least for the San Joaquin Valley.

Another upper-level trough arrives late Monday into Tuesday and will reinforce relatively cool temperatures. Models continue to trend this feature northward and have lowered the chances of any precipitation reaching our portion of the Sierra Nevada to 10 percent or less. However, the next warmup starts Wednesday of next week with the return of the Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure. Chances of highs of at least 90 degrees rise back to 80-90 percent throughout the Central Valley by then and continue for the remainder of next week. By Thursday, the chances for highs at least 95 degrees rise to 65-75 percent in the warmest spots.

Latest CPC outlooks show continued above average temperatures and near to below average precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. However, expect northwest winds at 12-15 kts with gusts near 22 kts through 09Z Sunday at the TAF sites. Also, gusts to 40 kts over the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County will occur through 09Z Sunday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300-301. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ332.