Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend beginning today.

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday.

- Additional low rain and storm chances heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis show a broad, deep-layer trough lumbering its way eastward over the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging remains over the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. Closer to home and at the surface, light winds and clear skies are allowing for temperatures to drop to around freezing across a large portion of the area. While many locations may be just short of hitting freezing mark, it is possible areas of frost will develop across much of the forecast area this morning. That being said, southerly flow is beginning to reestablish itself across the region. This should promote a gradual warming trend beginning today and continuing through the middle or latter portions of the week. Afternoon highs will rise well into the 70s, and lows tonight will only dip into the 40s. Warmer temperatures are anticipated each afternoon Monday through Wednesday with highs across southern and southeast Kansas in the mid to upper 70s, and highs across central Kansas in the mid 80s. These warmer temperatures west of highway K14 will be caused by warmer and drier air being advected in from the High Plains. Additionally, breezy conditions will accompany this warm and dry airmass supporting very high grassland fire danger, mainly Monday and Wednesday afternoons.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

Another system is anticipated to arrive into central and northern plains on Thursday potentially setting up another afternoon and evening of strong to severe storms. Mid range guidance indicates a sharp shortwave mid/upper trough will pivot northward from the central High Plains to the northern Great Plains with the jet max extending from the Great Lakes region to the central plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will likely collide with a dryline draped across the region. Synoptic ascent from the right entrance region of the jet along with ample low-level forcing from the crashing cold front should provide more than enough lift to trigger widespread shower and thunderstorm development. With multiple days of return flow between now and then, moisture does not appear to be a potential limiting factor. At this time, details in the exact hazards from this activity are still a little fuzzy, but the current forecast instability and shear would support strong to severe storms. Additionally, sufficient moisture may also pose a heavy rain and localized flooding concern.

Beyond Thursday, guidance suggests southwesterly flow from the subtropical jet will likely remain over the southern and central plains for several days with multiple perturbations within the flow passing over the region. However, there are some questions on if sufficient moisture will be in place to support showers and storms. Currently, a large chunk of the mid to long range model suite show moisture staying well south of the forecast area which would significantly inhibit rain chances. Therefore, chances for showers and storms will remain low as we head into the end of the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

Main aviation concern will be breezy southwest winds today, and again Monday, with gusts exceeding 25 kts at times. For tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet should support low- level wind shear at 1000-1500 ft AGL from late evening through early Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Breezy and dry conditions will support very high grassland fire danger along and west of I-135 this afternoon, along with Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons.

ICT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.