Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little has changed in the forecast reasoning.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Above normal temperatures an no drought releif for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures an no drought releif for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front on Monday will be too weak and have too little support aloft to generate any meaningful precipitation. The boundary will only temper the heat from mid 90s to low 90s Tuesday/Wednesday before late week afternoons start to warm again as the front washes out and mid level height rises return to the South and East.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR with clear skies and no fog. SW winds a little gusty at the coast with a seabreeze but light winds return tonight. Sunday largely more of the same.

Extended Forecast...VFR to generally prevail thru Wed. Very low risk for restrictions from early morning fog thru Mon AM with a bit better risk for at least MVFR cigs starting Mon night behind a passing cold front and some showers/storms (mainly at KLBT Mon PM and at KLBT/KFLO Tue PM.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... SW winds increase tonight into Sunday with the approach of a cold front. Seas and sustained winds remain below advisory thresholds as the boundary is quite weak and has little to no energy aloft, the 925mb jet comfortably to our north crossing HSE. The easterly swell will become a bit shadowed by the increased wind chop. The post-frontal onshore flow will last Monday into Tuesday before a more typical southerly component returns while seas settle into the 2-3 ft range.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.