Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussions. Minor/nuisance tidal flooding is still forecast with this evening's high tide in downtown Wilmington and at the beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry and breezy at times through this week with continued drought and fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry and breezy at times through this week with continued drought and fire weather concerns.

Noticeably colder and drier conditions are expected to start the work week with temperatures near to below normal on Monday and Tuesday. However, as high pressure moves offshore by early Wednesday, expect a warming trend to return temps well-above normal for the latter half of the work week. Conditions will be breezy at times (mainly Mon/Wed/Fri/Sat), and when combined with the ongoing drought, concerns for rapid fire spread will continue. Over next weekend, a frontal system is expected to move into the area and this could bring our next chance for rain, although confidence is very low in the timing and amounts. Ensemble guidance tools paint a general 30-40% chance for measurable rain (at least 0.01") on Saturday at this time, although recent trends have been downward for these chances. Deterministic and AI guidance tools all show mixed signals and inconsistent trends given a complicated pattern evolution will be in progress, so this will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Cold front moving through the area attm, bringing gusty n to nw winds to area terminals. Should see those winds diminish by evening and become light and variable by morning. Expect VFR conditions to dominate through the period.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Friday.

MARINE

Through Monday...Within 20 NM, winds shifting to N to NW 15 to a sometimes solid 20 KT with higher gusts this afternoon will become N to NE and diminish to 10 to 15 KT overnight before veering back to SW on Monday in advance of a secondary front. Seas of 3 to 5 FT this afternoon and tonight will diminish to 2 to 3 FT Monday.

From 20 to 60 NM out, winds will become N to NW at 20 to 25 KT with gusts 30 KT this afternoon and tonight before diminishing Monday to 5 to 10 KT in the afternoon as they become NW. Seas will run 4 to 6 FT with 7 footers possible overnight.

Monday night through Thursday night... A backdoor cold front is expected to cause a wind shift early Monday night to north- northeasterly with speeds around 15-20 kts into Tuesday morning before subsiding and veering. As high pressure moves offshore, expect winds to fall back to south to southwesterly early Wednesday, with speeds rising back to 15-20 kts during the daytime as another front approaches from the north. Winds will gradually relax over Wednesday night into Thursday as the front stalls north of the area and lifts away, with southwesterly winds remaining in place.

Seas are expected to remain below 6 feet through the period, although heights will vary with the winds. Expect peak heights of 2- 4 ft during periods of increased winds and waves as low as 1-2 ft during periods of weaker winds. Wind waves are expected to be a primary contributor to the wave spectrum, although 1-2 ft southeasterly swells with a period around 7-8 sec are expected through the period along with northeasterly swells arriving late on Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.