Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs. Coastal flood advisory for the Lower Cape Fear River has been cancelled due to falling water levels, with minor coastal flooding possible again with Tuesday night's high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire danger continues through the rest of the week due to rain-free and periodically breezy weather during the ongoing severe to extreme drought.

2) Best rain chances/amounts in quite some time possible this weekend, which could alleviate the fire danger but likely won't make a dent in the drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire danger continues through the rest of the week due to rain-free and periodically breezy weather during the ongoing severe to extreme drought.

Severe drought (D2) continues across all of northeast SC and southeast NC, while extreme drought (D3) is trying to build in across parts of the Pee Dee region. See the U.S. Drought Monitor for more details... droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

Relative humidities should fall into the 20s/30s each afternoon, especially inland. Wednesday, Friday and Saturday could be the greatest fire danger due to elevated wind gusts more likely these days. Note that burn bans issued by state fire agencies remain in effect for the Carolinas until further notice with all outdoor burning being illegal.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Best rain chances/amounts in quite some time possible this weekend, which could alleviate the fire danger but likely won't make a dent in the drought. A cold front looks to move through this weekend bringing the best rain chances we've seen in a while. After a bit of a lull later Sun night and Mon, another chance of rain could come due to the approach of another cold front. Although rain amounts are a bit uncertain this far out, the NBM indicates ~50% chance of at least 0.5" Sat thru Mon night with only ~20-30% chance of at least 1". Certainly not looking to be a drought-busting rainfall by any means but hopefully at least a sign of a wetter weather pattern than we've seen of late.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR with mostly clear skies. Light northeast winds today, with southeasterly sea breeze at coastal terminals developing around 17- 19z. Winds become light out of the south tonight as high pressure moves offshore.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. Flight restrictions possible Saturday ahead of a cold front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Northeast winds around 15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts, will prevail across the local waters through midday today. High pressure shifts offshore this afternoon, lowering wind speeds and turning winds to southerly by tonight. Seas 3-4 ft out to 20nm and 4- 5 ft for 20-60nm waters through midday, will lower by a foot this afternoon into tonight as NE swell weakens.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Offshore high pressure will prevail with southerly flow expected until Sat night when a cold front likely gets very near to the area. Winds will be enhanced at times due to a periodic tightening of the pressure gradient from inland troughing, although headlines are not anticipated.

ILM WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.