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000 FXUS64 KJAN 061828 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New DISCUSSION...KEY MESSAGES
- Good chances for rain continue this weekend.
- Monitoring the potential for increasing heat stress next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Tonight through next Friday...Showers, along with a few storms, this weekend and the potential for increased heat stress during the upcoming week remain the weather stories during this forecast period. Deep moisture continues to increase across the region as a shortwave gradually moves into and through the forecast area through Monday. This will keep good rain chances in the forecast for the remainder of this afternoon and again on Sunday. There will be some lull in activity both tonight and Sunday night, but given the moisture-rich environment over the region some showers will remain possible during the overnight hours. While flash flooding is not expected, rainfall could be heavy at times given the copious amount of moisture overspreading the region this weekend. This could however result in the ponding of water in both low-lying and poor drainage areas.
The deeply moist airmass will persist across the region during the upcoming work week. The bulk of the rain chances will exit the CWA with the aforementioned shortwave, with ridging increasing across the region. But given the airmass over the forecast area, some isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection will remain possible during the week. It'll also be during this time where the concern for dangerous heat stress will be on the rise. By the time Tuesday rolls around, and continuing through Friday, with highs in the 90s and dew points well into the 70s, afternoon heat index values currently look to reach and eventually surpass the century mark. While this is still several days out, if the trend continues, at a minimum, a "Limited Threat" for said dangerous heat stress will need to be added to the HWO for portions of, if not all of, the forecast area for the middle and latter portion of next week. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
A mix of VFR-IFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites. Ceilings continue to lower as low stratus & RA impact sites spread north across the forecast area. VCTS will be possible at southern TAF sites through this 00Z this evening. Overnight MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail as lowered ceilings and BR will be possible at southern TAF sites.Winds will remain southerly, with sustained winds generally remaining under 10kts. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Jackson | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 30% | 70% | 20% | 20% |
| Meridian | 72 ℉ | 85 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 50% | 80% | 30% | 40% |
| Vicksburg | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 30% | 50% | 10% | 20% |
| Hattiesburg | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 20% | 40% |
| Natchez | 73 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 40% | 50% | 10% | 20% |
| Greenville | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 70% | 20% | 20% |
| Greenwood | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 30% | 90% | 20% | 30% |
JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
19/KP