Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will continue through much of the upcoming week.

- Confidence is increasing for significant rainfall amounts late this week into the weekend, that may potentially improve drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Through Tonight:

Rainfall totals from precipitation that ended this morning were a bit on the lower side of what we had hoped for with most locations receiving a 0.25 " or less of accumulation. Those to the north and west generally fared a bit better but the cold front was on the drier side of the forecast envelope overall. This isn't terribly surprising as drought conditions often become entrenched and self- perpetuating.

Fortunately, some additional relief may be on the way by the end of the upcoming week. In the meantime, tonight will be much drier and chilly with lows down into the middle and upper 40s F.

Some northerly wind gusts through this afternoon alongside 30-35% relative humidity raises some question about fire weather risk but appears we are just damp enough from overnight rains to preclude a need for a hazard graphic today.

Monday through Thursday:

High pressure will continue to build in and dominate through mid week with dry, warming conditions returning. We'll rebound back into the 70s F for highs Monday and into the 80s F for highs through Thursday.

Light winds will help to limit fire weather risk but the increased temperature, only slow recoveries in boundary layer moisture, ongoing drought, and our recent rains not helping as much as might have been hoped, will pose some risk that will need to be monitored particularly Monday and Tuesday.

Friday and the weekend:

Our next meaningful chance for drought affecting rains comes Friday as an upper low moving inland across the the western CONUS interacts and merges with a long wave polar trough moving across Canada and the northern US at the same time. This will result in a merged/phased trough that is slow to move eastward with lowered heights across the plains states. Our area will, as has been the case numerous times recently, be on the eastern fringe of trough influence. This could allow convective clusters to attempt to persist/develop eastward enough to yield local rain and thunderstorms as upper flow increases through the weekend. Some model guidance suggests this pattern could linger for a few days which could result in 1-3 inches of rain on average for most areas. This would mostly be a beneficial rainfall were it to come to fruition but, as we've seen, when a drought pattern becomes entrenched, a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted when model guidance begins to propose changes. The guidance that has attempted to do this over the past month or two have of course proven incorrect.

With that said, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions of our northwest in a Day 6 (Friday) convective outlook for a risk of severe storms. Given the low confidence and uncertainty of placement and timing, it is likely that that outlook will see adjustments both spatially and temporally over the next day or two. For that reason, we will continue to advertise mostly a rain and scattered thunderstorm event with little in the way of a severe risk on a specific day or portion of the area yet. Confidence should markedly increase through the week on the eventual evolution of that possible risk.

Disregarding exact time or placement, it does appear probable that somewhere in our area will see a lower-end risk for stronger to marginally severe storms at some point in the next 6-8 days as that trough, possibly multiple embedded shortwave perturbations within it, and eventually another front move across the area with deep layer shear at or above 35 knots amid a warm and moist boundary layer. As stated, we will be keeping a close eye on this but confidence is even lower than normal for a day 6/7 forecast given it is predicated on the merger of two upper features that are not well sampled to this point in addition to the fact that this would represent a meaningful departure from the ongoing drought trend. /86/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail today through tomorrow. Most clouds have cleared out of the area, with some high clouds still remaining in the east. Winds will be the primary concern through the rest of the afternoon, with northerly winds gusting 15-20kts. These should diminish later this afternoon and early evening. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.