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000 FXUS64 KJAN 061800 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend.
- Monitoring the potential for increasing heat stress next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
Today through Sunday night: There have been no changes in the forecast reasoning for this weekend. A shortwave trough crossing the Southern plains to Mid MS Valley will bring very humid southerly flow into the forecast area this weekend. The combination of lift and moisture will result in diurnally enhanced locally heavy rainfall over southeast portions of the area today, but the focus for locally heavy rainfall appears to be more loosely organized Sunday. Overall, the heavy rain and flash flood threat is too low to introduce formal messaging in the HWO graphics for this weekend.
Going through next week, rain chances will diminish as the trough moves out with strengthening of the subtropical ridge. The wet vegetative state from recent above normal rainfall will support very humid boundary layer conditions, and this combined with increasing temperatures and relatively cloud free conditions associated with the ridge will bring a threat for dangerous heat. Current guidance indicates that heat indices/WBGT and the overall heat risk should peak Wed- Fri when highs are expected to reach the low/mid 90s. If these trends continue then formal messaging will eventually be needed in the HWO graphics. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through 10Z at all TAF sites. Ceilings lower nearer to dawn, dropping to MVFR/IFR as low stratus develops across the region. Thereafter, MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through the remainder of the TAF period as rain chances increase. Embedded thunderstorms within the area of scattered showers will become more likely near the afternoon hours but coverage across all guidances remain low at this time, as such we are going with showers for the time being./OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026
A mix of VFR-IFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites. Ceilings continue to lower as low stratus & RA impact sites spread north across the forecast area. VCTS will be possible at southern TAF sites through this 00Z this evening. Overnight MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail as lowered ceilings and BR will be possible at southern TAF sites.Winds will remain southerly, with sustained winds generally remaining under 10kts./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Jackson | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 30% | 70% | 30% | 20% |
| Meridian | 72 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 30% | 50% |
| Vicksburg | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 20% | 10% |
| Hattiesburg | 73 ℉ | 86 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 20% | 40% |
| Natchez | 73 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 60% | 10% | 10% |
| Greenville | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 89 ℉ | 30% | 70% | 40% | 10% |
| Greenwood | 73 ℉ | 87 ℉ | 74 ℉ | 88 ℉ | 40% | 80% | 40% | 20% |
JAN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
EC/EC/KP