Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to moderate confidence in light precipitation arriving this evening across the Pine Ridge and spreading southeast into Friday.

- Moderate confidence in embedded thunderstorms Friday night, but high confidence in a low severe potential.

- A decent amount of rainfall continues to look promising for most of western and north central Nebraska this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures and rather unsettled conditions continue into next week, with chances for showers continuing.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward throughout the next few hours. Overall, the severe potential has waned as these storms encounter a more stable environment. Minimal QPF is expected with these showers with most locations seeing under a tenth of an inch (0.10). In addition, some lightning will be possible with these storms which may cause additional fire concerns across the region especially with minimal precipitation expected out of these storms.

For today, a return to drier conditions is expected behind the departing front. Some mild cold air advection from the north into the region will also result in some cooler temperatures today. Expect highs to range from the mid 60s in the Pine Ridge to the mid 70s into portions of central Nebraska.

The drier air will be short lived as the next chance for light precipitation will occur when a weak trough moves into western South Dakota and into northwest Nebraska tonight. Current thinking is that precipitation will push into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge by Thursday evening starting as all rain. However, as temperatures fall to near and below freezing overnight, rain will change over to a rain/snow mix and even all snow in some of the higher terrain. Any accumulations are expected to be under a half inch, but some of the higher terrain could see up to 1 inch. Still this should be isolated and confidence remains high that most locations should only see accumulations limited to under a half inch.

Precipitation will continue to push southeast through Friday and into Friday night as the trough pivots across the upper Plains. Any snow that did develop the previous night will change back to all liquid as temperatures rise into the 50s and 60s. While much of the region has the chance to see some rainfall, the best potential to see the heaviest QPF will be north of Highway 2 where a quarter to half inch (0.25 - 0.50) could be observed. There will also be a threat for some embedded thunderstorms Friday evening and into the overnight hours. With minimal instability across Nebraska, not expecting severe storms, but some brief gusty winds up to 50 mph or small hail could be experienced in some of the stronger thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A change in the weather pattern occurs this weekend. An upper level trough will move eastward across the Rockies Saturday, with a warm front developing eastward across Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado surface low. Plenty of moisture available, with strong Gulf moisture advection into the Southern Plains Saturday. As the low deepens Saturday night across eastern Colorado, the Gulf moisture will begin to advect northward into Kansas as the warm front sharpens. On Sunday, the warm front will lift northward toward southern Nebraska, with moist upslope flow, dew points in the 50s, being advected southeast to northwest across western Nebraska. Strong mid-level FGEN develops late Saturday night into Sunday north of the warm front, and a widespread beneficial rainfall look promising. ENS probabilities for at least one half inch of QPF continue to increase, with a 70-90% chance north of I-80 and 40-60% chance to the south. This is supported by both the GEFS and Canadian ensemble suite, so confidence continues to increase regarding the potential rainfall. Wet snow still looks possible across northwest Nebraska later Sunday, but models have warmed overall, and accumulation looks unlikely at this time.

Unsettled conditions look to continue into next week. Periods of scattered showers and cooler temperatures are anticipated beneath an active westerly flow aloft.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A cold front will cross the area with winds shifting to the northwest early this morning. Surface winds will increase to 20-30 kts later this morning and last into the afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected at all locations.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska today. Gusty winds from the west to northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph can be expected. Humidity will be lowest for areas east of Highway 83 and south of I-80, where 10-15% is expected by this afternoon. Across northwest nebraska lowest humidity values should generally be in the 15-25% range. Humidity recovery tonight will range from moderately-good to good. The better recovery will be across northwest Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.