Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air will remain in place through Monday as winds begin to ease and become easterly

- Rain chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a surge of moisture moves up the TX coast, with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall in place on Wednesday

- Warmer temperatures, humid conditions, and isolated shower activity can be expected through the later half of the period

DISCUSSION

(This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Surface analysis shows yesterday's cold front now draped along the Eastern Seaboard to an area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf, while high pressure is over the Southern Plains. Lingering shower activity has finally cleared out of the forecast area, and cloud cover is slowly following suit as a drier airmass works its way into the region. Mostly sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm up to near 70 degrees through the next few hours. Surface high pressure continues to settle overhead tonight into tomorrow, allowing winds to relax and temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s.

Moving into the work week, weak ridging begins to take shape aloft over the Plains, with a couple of disturbances passing overhead through the mid-week. At the surface, low pressure lingers near the south TX coast, with a surface trough eventually developing through the mid-week. Monday brings one more day of dry and cooler conditions, with PWATs below the 25th percentile and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday bring an uptick in moisture from the S/SW and the aforementioned surface low/trough shifts a slug of moisture up the TX coast. Higher moisture values will remain over the Gulf waters and south TX coast, but PWATs will still increase to above the 75th percentile across the CWA. The combination of increased moisture and lift provided by the passing upper level disturbances/nearby surface trough will bring about increased rain chances both Tues and Wed. Rain chances will be best across SE TX and lower for Acadiana both days, with Wed bringing the best chance of rain. In addition, WPC has now outlined all of SE TX and SW/W LA in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday. While moisture surges, increased cloud cover associated with this convection will hold temps near seasonal norms through the midweek.

Modest rain chances (generally in the 20-50% range) linger each day through the later half of the week and into the weekend as elevated moisture persists over the Gulf Coast. This rainfall looks to be a bit more unorganized and less widespread than earlier in the week, which will allow for more sunshine and a warming trend to commence. Highs reach into the low to mid 80s, while lows only fall into the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Gusty NE winds and scattered to broken high clouds streaming across the region from the west will persist through the afternoon/evening hours. Tonight, winds relax while high clouds linger. Winds begin to increase again by tomorrow morning, becoming gusty and out of the east by the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Strong and gusty NE winds continue into tonight, with a combination of small craft and exercise caution conditions expected. NE winds shift E by early tomorrow, remaining breezy and out of the E to SE throughout the week. Rain chances increase again by Tuesday and peak on Wednesday as a disturbance meanders around the western Gulf near the south TX coastline. This disturbance will start to fade by the late week, allowing rain chances to come down, while winds remain in the 10-15kts range.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Breezy northeast winds in the wake of yesterday's front will remain gusty- around 20-25kts through the afternoon, advecting a much drier airmass into the region. This dry airmass remains in place for Monday, but any fire concerns will decrease as winds will become lighter, around 5-10 kt. By Tuesday, the winds begin shift to the southeast, which will increase RH and chances for subsequent scattered showers over the area that help mitigate fire weather concerns through the remainder of the forecast period.

LCH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452- 455.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ470-472-475.