Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Very dry and cooler conditions will start the new week. A warming trend will bring the area back to the mid 80s for highs by the end of the week along with the next chance of rain.

- Small Craft Advisories remain through Monday evening for northerly winds 20 to 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The surface cold front moved through the region early this morning allowing temperatures to drop from the upper 60s and lower 70s late last night to lower and middle 50s this morning. Clouds are finally clearing as dry air continues to filter into the region from the north. This has allowed temperatures to warm west of the I55 corridor at the time of this discussion. Forecast highs in the lower 70s are still possible this afternoon, but locations across the east or southeast will struggle to reach these values. The main message through tonight and into the start of the new workweek is the temperatures being roughly 10 degrees or so below average. Overnight, along and north of I10/12 could drop off into the upper 40s, however, with winds remaining just elevated enough...don't think temps will maximize radiative potential for even lower values.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry as northwest flow remains over the region. At the surface high pressure will settle over the southeast states. Eventually it will spread east allowing for the surface flow to become more onshore with a gradual uptick in low level moisture. Globals are still having issues with the potential for rain/storms by midweek. GFS continues to resolve a wetter solution than ECMWF. The proximity to an old front as well as a well defined H5 vort is plenty for rain chances on the GFS. But the disagreement among the globals continues to add some uncertainty hence the lower tier POPs going into late Tuesday through Wednesday night with ECM taking the dry road. Temperatures will also start to gradually rebound late in the period, but the increase in temps will be mostly recognized in the long term. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Going into the long term, weak upper level ridging takes shape over the region. The surface high being just east will continue to provide a moisture rich onshore flow which signals a warming trend continuing into the long term. That said, globals aren't dry. A cold front will move southeast toward our region eventually stalling in the progressive zonal flow aloft. Ahead of the front low level moisture will continue to filter into the region from the Gulf. The close proximity to the front generally along the I20 corridor will be just close enough to help generate showers and storms. With stronger surface heating there could be a few mesoscale boundaries such as lake/sea breeze and eventually outflow that could help spark a few showers and storms during peak heating as well. Overall enough confidence for lower-end POPs this weekend, but there still remains some disagreement leading to lower than average confidence in the POPs. Temps, however, are a bit more confident through the upcoming weekend. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions through the cycle. The main story will be winds, some gusting 20-30 kts, especially southshore terminals. Winds should begin to transition to a ENE or E direction in time. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A cold front will bring northerly winds around 25kt through Monday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for these potentially hazardous conditions. Northeast winds will shift to east into Tuesday but remain elevated. Wednesday, winds will shift to a more SE direction and ease a bit to around 10-15 kt, possibly remaining that way for the remainder of the week and into the next weekend. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ529-531>536- 557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ541-543-551- 553-554-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT Monday for GMZ531>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ543-551-553- 554-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ572-575.