Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Cool/dry weather is expected today and Monday. Patchy frost will be possible late tonight across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.

* A warming trend will begin Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week.

* A slight chance of rain is possible across the northern Bluegrass Wednesday. The next major rain chance will be in the Friday- Saturday period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows clearing skies working into southern Indiana and western Kentucky. The back edge of the cloud shield is running roughly along the I-65 corridor. A few light rain showers are lingering across our far eastern sections. This shower activity will diminish in the next 1-2 hours. Clearing skies will eventually work eastward and most locations should be mostly clear by sunrise. Temperatures are generally in the mid-upper 40s early this morning. With clearing skies and the slackening of the wind field, we should see temperatures fall off into the upper 30s/lower 40s by dawn.

For today, skies will start off sunny this morning, but we should see a cold air stratocu field develop across the region by early-mid afternoon. Highs today will be noticeably cooler with readings in the upper 50s in the Bluegrass with lower 60s elsewhere. A few mid 60s will be possible across the southwest sections.

For tonight, a dry cold front will push through the region. This feature will bring a band of cloud cover to the region for a portion of the overnight period. Behind that front, an expansive area of high pressure will build into the region. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s in most locations. The amount of cloud cover tonight may keep us from fully radiating out across southeast Indiana and the Bluegrass region. Here temperatures look to fall into the upper 30s, with some protected valleys dropping into the mid 30s. Some patchy frost will be possible across southeast Indiana and into the Bluegrass region. Overall, the probability of frost has decreased a bit in the latest forecasts based on the expected cloud cover overnight. As a pre-caution to early season gardeners, we will issue a Special Weather Statement for our SE IN and Bluegrass region counties to take precautions overnight due to the frost.

Monday and Monday night will feature mostly clear skies with highs in the upper 50s across southeast IN and the Bluegrass region of central KY. Highs in the lower-mid 60s are expected in the I-65 corridor and points west. Lows Monday night will drop into the upper 30s out in the east, with lower 40s in the central and western sections.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Tuesday through Wednesday Night...

For the mid-week period, the upper level flow across the CONUS will feature a ridge in the central US with troughs on both coasts. The Ohio Valley will remain in a northwest flow aloft, but at the surface we'll get back into a southwesterly return flow pattern on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs of 73-78 and overnight lows in the lower 50s. On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will push southeast and scrape the northeast sections of the forecast area. This feature may produce some isolated showers in our northeast sections. Otherwise highs of 75-80 are expected Wednesday afternoon with lows Wednesday night dropping back into the 50s.

Thursday through Saturday...

For the end of the week, upper level ridging across the Plains will move east into the Ohio Valley. With the upper ridge moving in and a continued southwest flow pattern, temperatures will be above normal with a continued warm signal in the ECMWF EFI datasets. Overall a dry period of weather is expected on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The ridge axis across the region will be short-lived as a shortwave trough axis will move through the northern Plains driving a frontal boundary into the Midwest/Mid-MO Valley by early Friday. This boundary looks to push through the region during the day on Friday and into Saturday bringing us our next chance of precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the whole TAF period. Gusty winds of 20-30 MPH generally from the west will continue until sunset when gusts will die down. Clear to scattered clouds will linger into the overnight with increasing cloud cover after sunset. An approaching cold front will bring in OVC skies dropping to near 8 kft briefly along with light winds shifting out of the north. However, skies will quickly improve after sunrise with clear skies for everyone by 12Z. Light northerly flow, clear skies and VFR conditions then continue into Monday afternoon.

LMK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KY...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ031>033-036- 037-042-043. IN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for INZ076>079-092.