Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

- Patchy fog possible over souther Rolling Plains early Tuesday morning.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Showers from earlier this evening have either dissipated or shifted out of the CWA. However, chances remain off the Caprock through the next few hours. Low stratus has filled in over much of the region and is expected to prevail overnight through Tuesday morning. Lingering cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the 50s for much of the region. The low stratus layer will begin to dissipate Tuesday morning from northwest to southeast as surface winds shift to the southwest with clouds expected to linger over areas off the Caprock through the late afternoon. This will give a decent temperature gradient Tuesday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 80s over the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to lower 70s across the southern Rolling Plains. Southerly winds will prevail overnight before slightly shifting to the southwest for the first part of Tuesday. Winds will shift back to the south by late Tuesday afternoon. Cloudy skies will fill back in over areas off the Caprock through late Tuesday evening and overnight, keeping lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On the Caprock, where clear skies are expected, lows will be in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

No change to the long term forecast for this package with dry conditions and fire weather possible. Upper ridging will fill in over the region late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Slight thickness increases will warm temperatures to the mid 80s to lower 90s across the region Wednesday. These warmer temperatures are expected to continue through the rest of the week. At the same time as the upper ridging moves overhead, an upper trough will push onshore over the Pacific Northwest and continue to track across northern CONUS through the rest of the week. This in turn will shift upper winds over southwest CONUS to the southwest resulting in the development of lee troughs every afternoon Wednesday through Friday. Tightening in the pressure gradient from these surface troughs will give way to breezy south to southwesterly winds everyday. Windy and dry conditions will give way to elevated to critical fire danger each afternoon from Wednesday through Friday, especially on the Caprock. A dryline looks to set up along the I-27 corridor Wednesday afternoon, however no thunderstorms are expected ahead of the dryline. We could see a possible cool down to start off next week with the GFS indicating a cold front will push southward through the region late Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

MVFR CIGs are quickly advancing northward across the region early this morning, impacting KLBB and KPVW. We will continue to see the northward progression of these low ceilings, expected to reach KCDS around 08Z to 09Z. South of LBB, IFR CIGS are being detected by AWOS although there is low confidence in these CIGs reaching the terminal this morning. Low CIGs will begin to diminish by mid-morning with the return of VFR conditions.

LUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.