Area Forecast Discussion

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Letterhead and timestamp

000 FXUS64 KLZK 191733 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1233 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Gradual warming trend starts today through Thursday.

- Mainly dry conditions expected Sunday through Thursday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Satellite late tonight shows band of cloudiness of southern and southeast Arkansas with light rain over far southern and southeast part of the state. An area of high pressure over the southern Plains will combined with a ridge of high pressure over the upper midwest later today. Both ridges will move off to the east allowing more southerly return then southwesterly by Tuesday allowing temperatures to gradually moderate into the lower 80s in parts of the state by mid week through the end of the work week.

Attention turn to the next weather maker for the state. Model guidance has a long wave trough coming ashore over southern California sometime Monday night into Tuesday. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance shows some subtle differences on how far the trough digs as it progresses east across the western US. The trough will move into the Rockies by Wednesday, then into the central Plains by Thursday before ejecting northeast into the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. The trough will drag a cold front through the state bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms to the state Friday into Saturday.

Some deterministic and ensemble guidance are hinting at the possibility of severe weather across the state. At this time, is too far out to get into specifics related to timing, placement, and specific hazards related to severe weather on Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. W/NW winds in place across northern AR this afternoon could provide some gusts above 15 kts at times through sunset. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter and more variable. Winds tonight will go nearly calm before S/SW winds around 5-8 kts expected areawide around 20/15z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
Batesville AR 48 ℉ 78 ℉ 53 ℉ 81 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Camden AR 44 ℉ 80 ℉ 48 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Harrison AR 46 ℉ 78 ℉ 51 ℉ 78 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hot Springs AR 46 ℉ 78 ℉ 49 ℉ 79 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Little Rock AR 48 ℉ 80 ℉ 52 ℉ 81 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Monticello AR 48 ℉ 81 ℉ 52 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mount Ida AR 45 ℉ 78 ℉ 49 ℉ 77 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 10%
Mountain Home AR 44 ℉ 79 ℉ 50 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Newport AR 48 ℉ 78 ℉ 52 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pine Bluff AR 47 ℉ 80 ℉ 51 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Russellville AR 45 ℉ 80 ℉ 49 ℉ 80 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Searcy AR 45 ℉ 79 ℉ 49 ℉ 81 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%
Stuttgart AR 49 ℉ 79 ℉ 53 ℉ 82 ℉ 0% 0% 0% 0%

LZK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

SHORT TERM...76 LONG TERM....76 AVIATION...67