Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Below normal temperatures persist through Monday, before trending upward by midweek.

- An upper level disturbance brings low to medium (10-40%) rain chances to much of the area this evening into Monday. Rainfall totals look light.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Visible satellite shows another disturbance moving into the region out of the west. With it, low clouds and a chance for isolated to scattered showers will gradually move into the region out of the southwest into this evening and overnight tonight. Increasing clouds and winds out of the southeast will keep temperatures from falling as much as this morning. Many will end up in the 40s with areas along the Pecos River Valley and down across Big Bend in the low 50s. Rain chances will be generally low (10-30%) with rain amounts remaining low with most spots seeing a few hundredths. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out, but severe storms are not currently expected.

Tomorrow sees isolated showers move to the north and east across the area before decaying or exiting to the east by the evening. Highs will range from the 60s into the 70s depending on cloud and rain coverage. Rain amounts, if measurable, will once again be on the low side, below a tenth of an inch for most.

-Stickney

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Warmer temperatures return Tuesday onward, as an upper level disturbance shifts eastward and ridging reestablishes overhead. Highs reach the 70s/80s Tuesday, then the 80s/90s Wednesday. A few showers/storms may develop west of the Pecos River Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances range from 10-30%, with best odds in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. Midweek, an upper trough progresses over the western US. Southwesterly flow aloft increases Thursday, as the jet streak of this feature approaches. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface winds also increase with the development of a lee trough that looks to extend south through the Plains. Breezy winds are forecast over much of our region Wednesday afternoon through early Friday. The strongest winds would likely be within the Guadalupe/ Delaware Mountains during this timeframe. Aside from gusty winds, warm and dry conditions may contribute to critical fire weather conditions during the latter half of the work week, primarily over the western half of our region. Downsloping westerly winds send Thursday's highs into the 80s and 90s. A weak cold front may sneak into our northern counties Friday, but some models show this quickly mixing out, keeping afternoon temperatures roughly similar to Thursday. Another reinforcing push from an upper trough over the northern and central Plains might finally send this front down late Saturday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures heading into the following week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR continues through the day. MVFR CIGs move into the region tonight. Winds remain southerly to southeasterly with gusts between 20-25kts decaying after sunset this evening. Introduced PROB30s for rain chances during the overnight hours as isolated to scattered storms develop and move from south to north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.