Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Below normal temperatures persist through Monday, before trending upward by midweek.

- An upper level disturbance brings low to medium (10-40%) rain chances to much of the area late today into Monday. Rainfall totals look light.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 149 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

We've had a much quieter night with only a few high clouds streaming across the region and temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s. Surface high pressure will slide off to the east today allowing winds to return to the southeast. Meanwhile, a shortwave will enter N. Mexico this afternoon and begin to move in our direction. Clouds will quickly increase later today helping keep temperatures below normal, especially south of I-10. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop and move into the Big Bend and Davis Mountains region by late afternoon. Rain and storms will spread north with time making it to the Permian Basin after midnight. Rain will initially struggle to reach the ground given a very dry sub-cloud layer, but once the atmosphere moistens we should finally see some light QPF. Most locations will see less than a tenth of an inch, but a few areas could pick up more, especially south of I-20. Rain chances continue into Monday before we dry out by Monday night. Temperatures Monday could stay on the cool side with highs in the low 60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where rain chances are higher. Further west, highs will top out in the 70s as clouds break late in the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Temperatures head back above normal the rest of the week as mid level ridging returns and surface flow veers to the southwest. A storm system lifting into the Plains Thursday is likely to bring our hottest day of the week along with breezy west winds. This will lead to critical fire weather conditions, especially across the western half of the area. Another cold front looks to arrive Friday. The extended looks dry outside of an isolated storm in the Davis Mountains Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR continues through the day. MVFR CIGs move into the region tonight. Winds remain southerly to southeasterly with gusts between 20-25kts decaying after sunset this evening. Introduced PROB30s for rain chances during the overnight hours as isolated to scattered storms develop and move from south to north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MAF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.