Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds were increased across the waters through Sunday, which prompted the issuance of Small Craft Advisories starting this evening for all zones except the Alligator River

Temperatures were decreased on Monday and Tuesday

A Climate section was added for potentially record breaking temperatures tomorrow

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and dry conditions expected through the weekend.

2) Increased Fire Danger risk across the area this weekend.

3) Low-end thunderstorm risk Sunday evening into Monday afternoon

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A downsloping low-level flow beneath ridging aloft will combine with notably warm low-level thicknesses to support hot, above normal temperatures areawide through the weekend. Despite periods of high clouds overspreading the area today, highs should manage to reach the mid-90s inland, with 80s along the coast. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer (mid to upper 90s inland, low to mid 80s beaches) with inland temperatures flirting with records. See the Climate section for more information. While it will be hot, mixing of a dry airmass will keep dewpoints and humidity levels down, making it more of a "dryish" heat.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The combination of hot temperatures, seasonally low relative humidities, and ongoing drought conditions is expected to support an increased fire danger across all of ENC through the weekend. Of note, rainfall is running about 10-25 percent of normal over the past week across much of ENC. This, combined with the hot and dry conditions, is leading to dry fine fuels and less impact from live fuels. These conditions are noteworthy for this time of year, and is the reason for elevated fire concerns. In collaboration with the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger Statement is in effect for today, with a continuation into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...An upper level shortwave will traverse the Great Lakes and New England over the next 48 hours. This will push a cold front south through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, reaching northeast NC by Sunday night/early Monday. The front is then forecast to cross ENC during the day Monday. On Sunday, the greatest chance of thunderstorms is expected to reside to our north where forcing along the front will coincide with reduced inhibition and moderate instability. Sunday is expected to remain dry until the evening when chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 15-30% across northern zones. It's expected that any convection to the north in Virginia will be moving southeast into a stabilizing airmass across NE NC. Despite increasing inhibition, some elevated/weak thunderstorms may survive into the Albemarle Sound vicinity after sunset. On Monday, the front is expected to be through most of ENC by the time peak heating rolls around, and this is expected to keep the convective risk more muted. If the front were to slow down at all, then the chance of thunderstorms would likely increase. However, for now the most likely scenario is that scattered, weak thunderstorms will develop across the far southwestern counties of ENC, with dry conditions elsewhere. Weak shear and modest instability should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms low on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the period. We'll see mostly high clouds given that the dry and stable airmass in place will limit diurnal cumulus development. The seabreeze is causing southwest winds to gust to 15-20 kt, but winds will decrease to around 10 kt. Tomorrow's seabreeze will likely cause another round of 15-20 kt southwesterly gusts.

Outlook: A cold front is forecast to move through ENC on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift and the potential for 3-4k ft CIGs. A TSRA risk may accompany this front as well, but mainly for areas in the vicinity of KOAJ.

MARINE

This weekend will feature a very typical summertime pattern with elevated winds and seas during the peak thermal gradient each afternoon and evening. Given that winds trended up today, SCAs were issued for all zones except the Alligator River. This evening, SW winds are expected to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. There will be a slight reprieve in the morning before the thermal gradient increases gusts back up to 25-30 kt tomorrow afternoon. These conditions are expected to last into early Monday morning with seas building to 3-5 ft in response.

Outlook: A cold front will move through area waters on Monday with a northeasterly wind shift. While a thunderstorm risk may accompany this front, the risk looks low, and mainly confined to the coastal and offshore waters south of Cape Lookout, as well as inland waterways around the Crystal Coast (New River, Bogue Sound, White Oak River, etc.). A typical summertime pattern returns by the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

Record High temps for 06/07 (Sunday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 98/2008 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 90/1988 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 100/2008 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 94/2008 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 99/1914, 2008 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 99/2001 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ230-231.