Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Moderate to extreme drought will exacerbate wildfire activity.

- Rain chances diminish this morning as the cold front moves offshore, but any additional rainfall totals will be low with no improvement to the drought conditions.

- Strong marine winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft into early Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Now through Saturday...

Through Tuesday, a deep upper trough moving over the northern Conus shifts an upper ridge over the Gulf southwestward through the weekend, with a cold front crossing the forecast area tonight into early Sunday morning in response. Precipitable h20 levels have risen around 1.6" as the front passes tonight into Sunday. Enough instability is present for a few thunderstorms to mix in, though no strong storms are expected. Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest west of the Alabama River as isentropic upglide created rainfall follows the frontal passage. Even so, no drastic changes to drought conditions over the forecast area are expected. By Monday night, the upper trough has shifted to off the East Coast. Temperatures through this period rise from around 70 today to the 79 to 84 degree range by Tuesday. Low temperatures rise from the mid 40s to around 50 Sunday night to the mid 50s to around 60 by Tuesday night. Wednesday through Saturday, an upper ridge builds north over the Plains, then shifts east through the latter half of the week. An upper level shortwave trough passes over the Southeast ahead of the ridge mid week, but with marginal moisture return as onshore flow returns Tuesday, PoPs remain low. Temperatures quickly rise back to above seasonal norms by the end of the week.

Onshore flow shifts to offshore Sunday, keeping the Rip Risk low into the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current risk to Moderate to High the latter half of the week. /16

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Gusty northerly winds, with gusts as high as 25 knots, will continue through the afternoon hours. Winds lower to around 5-10 knots tonight. Winds turn northeasterly Monday morning. /96

MARINE

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this morning for all marine zones in the wake of a strong cold front passing through the region. Strong northerly flow this morning will decrease to moderate across the bays and sounds by early this afternoon but remain strong over the Gulf through at least Monday morning. A light to moderate easterly flow Tuesday morning will shift to southeasterly in the afternoon through Thursday. /22

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area. With drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a Significant Fire Potential is in effect for Monday and Tuesday. Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all. Will let day shift continue, with coordination with relevant fire weather folks on any WWAs needed. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.