Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. - Rain chances remain elevated this weekend, particularly over the western half of the local area. Heavy rainfall is possible, which could lead to localized flooding concerns.

- Heat indices may reach the 100 degree mark by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

06.12Z upper air maps show a short wave upper ridge at high levels over the Gulf while at mid-levels the ridge axis is positioned more over the FL Peninsula. In the lower levels with the ridge east of the area, a weakly reflected inverted surface trof of low pressure is lifting northward over southeast LA/southern MS. The environment is deeply moist and primed. The 06.12Z sounding at LIX shows PWAT's ~2.25" and very near the maximum of the sounding climatology. East of the trof, bands of moderate to locally heavy rainfall aligned north to south will spread in off the Gulf in the near term and lift north and northeast through the area. The concern continues to be flooding, but the good news is radar trends thus far has shown limited residence time over any one area in particular to result in water problems. Although we saw a short break over the last several days, excessive rainfall in May has re-charged soil moisture structure. If storms begin to show repeated motions over the same areas the threat of runoff, rapid filling of low lying areas and resultant flooding problems could evolve where drainage is poor this afternoon. The national centers have outlooked these areas for a slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Deep layer moisture/and better ascent looks to be aligned from the TN Valley to the Gulf coast tonight, on the northwest periphery of the southeast US mid level ridge axis. There are indications though, coverage should begin to decrease with isolated to scattered showers/perhaps a few storms mixed continuing to move through the area this evening/overnight. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected Sunday with increased coverages mainly west of I-65. Storms should start to develop by around daybreak, spreading inland throughout the afternoon. Once again, there could be some localized flooding in spots where storms move over the same areas. Rain chances drop off Sunday night.

Upper ridging begins to build back into the area for early next week. Subsidence from this upper ridge should help to lower rain chances across the area for Monday and Tuesday. A more typical summertime pattern (isolated to scattered mainly afternoon pulse-type storms) looks to setup Wednesday thru Friday. A diurnal decrease in storms expected each night.

Highs Sunday in the lower/mid 80's and some 2 to 7 degrees below normal for June 7th, will warm into the upper 80's/lower 90s and a few degrees above normal for the upcoming week. With afternoon dewpoints in the lower/mid 70's, heat indices could reach near the century mark mid to late week. Little change in overnight lows. Lower/mid 70's and well above normal through the period.

Feel it wise to hold onto a High Risk of Rip Currents through tonight despite latest data suggesting a category reduction in the risk. Latest rip current model data suggests that the risk trends back to moderate Sunday. As winds weaken, the rip current risk is favored to drop back to a low risk by Monday night into the middle of the week. /10

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Broken to overcast clouds streaming northward off the Gulf as weak trof of surface low pressure moves northward over southern MS. Lowest cigs predominantly MVFR with a lowering to IFR categories with the passage of shra/tsra. Vsbys also to briefly lower to IFR with passage of same. Brief wind gusts in an near tsra will present hazards to approaches and departures. /10

MARINE

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A light to moderate south to southeast flow is expected as we move into the remainder of the weekend and open up the new week. A brief period of easterly flow on Tuesday returns to south to southeast by the middle of next week. Seas to gradually lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MOB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None. GM...None.