Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Quick round of light snow showers possible through daybreak.

- Dry, with a warming trend through midweek. Temperatures then cooldown again next weekend.

- Tracking the return of showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Early morning regional radar display features radar echoes blossoming over eastern ND and central/western MN, ahead of a shortwave that is diving southeast within large scale northwesterly flow. Initial echoes over MN appear to largely be virga, as little ground truth is represented in surface observations. On the flip side, there are more reports of snowflakes across eastern ND/NW MN closer to the core of the synoptic forcing, which will spread southeast over time. It will likely be a few hours before observations across our forecast area see an increase in snowflakes reaching the surface as the latest MSP ACARS data samples fairly dry air throughout the column. Forecast soundings capture a short period of top-down saturation in tandem with a quick punch of strong omega forcing with the passage of the shortwave, so we'll continue to roll with 30-40 PoPs through daybreak. Evaporative cooling to sub- zero wet bulbs should promote snow as the main p-type, though it's possible a few raindrops may mix in across southern MN.

The batch of snow showers will depart to the southeast near or shortly after daybreak. A sunny and cool day will follow as a surface high begins to build in from the northwest. Surface winds will not be as gusty as yesterday, though RAP/RRFS soundings advertise mixing heights to 6-7k feet, which should make ~20 mph gusts common through this afternoon. Focus shifts to the large scale ridge currently positioned across the western CONUS. The ridge and attendant height rises will expand east over the next few days and will begin a warming trend across the Upper Midwest. Monday will be a bit of a transition day, with a ~10-15 degree high temperature spread from western MN (near 70) to western WI (mid 50s). Widespread highs in the lower 70s appear likely on Tuesday, followed by the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. Stronger warm advection of 925mb T's between 20-25C will yield highs in the low to mid 80s across much of south central MN on Wednesday afternoon.

The push of warmer air on Wednesday will be supported by the advance of a shortwave trough that is forecast to translate across the Rockies Wednesday evening and pivot northeast towards the northern Plains on Thursday. The advance of the trough and associated surface low will send a cold front across the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. This evolution will bring the return of precipitation chances for the second half of the work week. The warm antecedent air mass, advection of Gulf moisture, and negative tilt to the trough may support strong to severe convection, which is highlighted by ML severe weather probabilities. Of course, this is a rather "generalized" summary of the setup since we have plenty of time to refine the details surrounding the convective scenario. Global guidance features some flavor of phasing of the aforementioned trough with a trailing shortwave over southern Canada on Friday, resulting in cooler troughing over the northern CONUS heading into next weekend. Latest NBM features highs in the 50s with lows in the 30s from next weekend into the early portion of the following week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions to prevail. Any snow that accumulated this morning has quickly melted and skies have cleared. NW winds will remain breezy through dusk then go light and variable, if not calm, tonight into Monday morning. Scattered to broken high level clouds return Monday afternoon along with gusty southerly winds.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. THU...MVFR/-RA likely, mainly PM. Wind S 10-15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None.