Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect dry and mostly sunny weather this weekend with above normal temperatures. - Temperatures trend hotter into next week, with widespread 90s possible mid to late week.

- Another round of showers and storms likely on Monday. Diurnally- driven showers and storms will be possible the remainder of the week (15-30% chance each day).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Radar shows rain clearing the far eastern end of the UP. early this morning as a cold front departs the area. Surface observations report patchy fog in a few locations given abundant low level moisture in place after yesterday's rainfall, but so far nothing rising to the level of any land-based headlines in terms of either coverage or visibility. The departure of the front and associated surface low moving into western Quebec this morning will set the stage for a pleasant weekend as high pressure builds over the region, yielding a couple of dry days with temperatures generally running in the 70s to low 80s over much of Upper Michigan. Some patchy fog will be possible again tonight as subsidence increases atop lingering low level moisture.

Monday brings the next chance of showers and thunderstorms as an an upper low which becomes cutoff over the South Plains today gradually lifts northward as an open trough into the Upper MS River Valley and Upper Great Lakes by early next week. This will be accompanied by another plume of rich Gulf moisture which will send PWATs back above 1 inch and perhaps above 1.5 inches depending upon your guidance of choice. Will thus have to keep an eye on the potential for some heavy rainfall with this system, particularly over the western half of the UP MOnday into Monday night. Not seeing any particularly strong signals for strong to severe thunderstorms in terms of shear and instability, but will keep an eye on this going forward as well. Beyond Monday, ensembles struggle about the details, with various clusters of surface features, but the broad pattern of ridging centered over the Ontario/Quebec line and troughing over the West Coast will put the UP in southwesterly flow aloft with various shortwave features emerging from the base of the large-scale trough over the Rockies providing some opportunities for diurnally-boosted minor shower/thunder chances (~15-30%). The ridging and persistent warm southerly flow will keep the warming trend going, with the NBM suggesting some mid to upper 90s highs in the interior west mid to late week. Raw guidance continues to suggest highs in the mid 80s instead, so it is to be determined whether the NBM bias correction is overcorrecting or if the hottest airmass of the season to date will be upon us.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

While high pressure was over the area northerly flow and a relatively moist boundary layer was helping to maintain fog over Lake Superior, advecting inland as low stratus and impacting CMX and SAW early this afternoon. Expect CMX to clear out over the next hour as drier air works into the area. SAW will remain on the edge of the cloud shield over the next few hours but by later this afternoon conditions should improve to VFR.

Tonight the winds will go light under clear skies. This, combined with moist air in the low levels will result in widespread fog late tonight into the early morning hours at CMX and SAW. Light southerly flow may keep fog out of the IWD area and did not mention in the TAF at this time.

Fog will lift through the morning hours on Sunday with VFR conditions and light winds the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 353 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Satellite and available surface observations reveal areas of fog continuing over parts of Lake Superior this morning in the wake of a passing cold front. Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for these areas through 11 AM EDT this morning. Will need to look at the potential to extend these headlines based on observational and forecast trends, as conditions will remain conducive to fog over the lake through Sunday morning. With high pressure reestablishing over the region this weekend, winds remain light today until Sunday afternoon, when east/northeast winds pick up to around 20kts over the western portions of the lake ahead of another approaching low pressure early next week. Guidance depicts a 50-70% chances of 20+ kt gusts as this system arrives on Monday, especially in the east to central portions of the lake. Winds fall back after Monday, but may pick up again late next week as low pressure moving out of the Rockies leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the Great Lakes.

MQT WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ242>251-263>267.

Lake Michigan... None.