Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 416 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Cooler temperatures set in today and continue into the beginning of next week

- Chance for light rain late Monday into early Tuesday - Warmer temperatures for the second half of next week

UPDATE

Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Stratus is dissipating along the Central Coast with clear skies expected through the rest of the day. Cooler high temperatures are expected today with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the interior and 50s to 60s along the coast. Gusty winds continue along the coast and the marine environment with gusts between 20-35 mph possible along the coast. The Beach Hazards Statement has been allowed to expire as of 9AM PDT as long period swell decreases. Although beach conditions are improving, continue to exercise caution and never turn your back on the ocean in the event that a sneaker wave occurs.

SHORT TERM

Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (Today and tonight)

Strong thermal ridging aloft yesterday will gradually cool through today and Sunday with further cooling occuring especially in the lower levels of the atmosphere early next week. For today it will feel noticeably less warm/hot inland with daytime highs near normal for June 6th with 70s to around 80F inland. Nearest the coast and bays daytime highs will reach the upper 50s and 60s. Forecast lows are in the 40s to mid 50s for tonight. A few inland locations e.g. the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and the southern interior of Monterey and San Benito counties may reach the upper 30s tonight.

Northerly and onshore surface pressure gradients and winds continue, at 2 am ACV-SFO is 7.0 mb and SFO-SAC is 3.9 mb. Gusty northwest winds over the coastal waters continue to produce cold water upwelling. Despite the high June sun angle and recent stratus free sky, sea surface temps in our coastal waters are currently in the lower to mid 50s, approx 1F to 2F below June normals.

LONG TERM

Issued at 212 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026 (Sunday through Friday)

Expect additional northwest winds, clear, dry conditions along with a continuation of cooling aloft Sunday. Daytime highs will be comfortable inland with 70s to 80F, near normal on Sunday. Daytime highs nearest the coast and bays will be in the upper 50s and 60s.

In the early Thursday morning June 4th AFD it was mentioned the recent GFS and to some extent the ECMWF have been showing a trough arriving with some measurable rainfall early next week. This remains true, however forecast precipitation amounts have since continued to vary in our forecast area with our forecast area located on the southern edge of measurable rainfall/drizzle w/r/t this incoming system. A plume of water vapor is moving across the Pacific coupled to low pressure/frontal development, the development supported by a strong late season meridional temperature gradient. The low/front are moving along a gradient of warmer to cooler sea surface temperature anomalies near the ongoing negative (cool) phase Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). With strong W-NW jet stream winds behind this low the low/front will move rapidly toward the Pacific Northwest and northern California early next week. Surface to lower level cool air advection will push into precipitable water ~ 1.50" per recent GFS as it moves across our area later Monday, Monday night and Tuesday morning. Our current official forecast is for < 0.10" mainly North Bay to parts of the East Bay, but this bears watching for potentially greater areal coverage and amounts of rain/drizzle. Rain is not common in June, it's normally the 4th driest month of the year in our area. 15 years ago in June 2011 (4th and 28th) e.g. produced much above June normal rainfall here, thus it can happen but it's a rare day for rain in June. The PDO was negative in 2011 and it was La Nina in the equatorial Pacific. At the very least keep in mind there's a chance of rain/drizzle here in our area early next week. A night-time arrival of clouds and frontal precipitation may benefit from radiative cooling above cloud tops furthering upward vertical motion.

Dry weather then returns to our forecast area mid to late week. Recent forecast model output has been indicating a strengthening 500 mb ridge generally to our northwest, along with a late week surface southerly wind reversal possibly developing. This means that compressional warming with the 500 mb ridge will be present, but so will recently chilled (upwelling) sea surface temps for the potential of natural air conditioning as an offset to warm/hot temperatures mid to late next week, at least nearest the coast. Please stay tuned to further updates.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Mostly VFR conditions anticipated throughout the day with increasing onshore winds this afternoon and evening. High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail across the North Bay, Bay Area and South Bay through the TAF period with generally less than a 20-30% probability of reaching MVFR conditions.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West-northwesterly winds are forecast to increase through the afternoon and evening with gusts between 35-40 kts. Winds will begin to diminish late in the night and into Sunday morning before increasing once again Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO but with weaker northwesterly winds.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Onshore winds are forecast to increase this afternoon diminishing late this evening. Going with more of a persistence forecast for tonight with MVFR ceiling and/or visibilities returning either late tonight and moreso into early Sunday morning. This is when we have between a 35-55% probability of reaching MVFR conditions that are forecast to improve to VFR by 16Z- 17Z Sunday morning.

MARINE

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 858 AM PDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Gale force gusts will prevail across the outer and inner waters through early Sunday morning. As a result, very rough seas across the outer waters and rough seas over the inner waters with hazardous conditions for small craft through the remainder of the weekend. However, conditions do begin to improve Sunday with moderate seas and fresh northwesterly breezes for the beginning of next week.

MTR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.