Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon from PM to 10 PM across southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa. Severe weather is not expected, but small hail, gusty winds, and brief downpours are possible (20-30%).

- Warmer weather builds in Monday lasting through much of the week. Highs trend upwards with continued rain chances that could thwart extreme heat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a notable MCV spinning over the Southern Plains, working with a weak surface low to continue moisture transport into the Central Plains and loft cloud debris northward. Another surface feature at play locally is a decaying front/convergent boundary laid roughly north of Plattsmouth, pointing eastward across southern Iowa. With clouds decreasing over the course of the morning, we've been able to warm up into the mid-to-upper 80s, as southeasterly winds remain rather light -- especially near the boundary.

Convergence along/south of that boundary in addition to the MCV to the south will combine to increase chances for a few thunderstorms from southeast Nebraska extending into the southern few tiers of Iowa Counties. Taking a look at model soundings, very little shear is in place for any storm to maintain a healthy updraft for very long, leading to a slow-moving but short-lived character to them. A few downpours, small hail, and gusts to 40-50 mph will be possible with the strongest of the storms, with the window for their occurrence being from 4 PM to 10 PM. Weaker overall convergence will also limit the number of storms as well, with any location having a 25% chance of seeing one. Heading into the overnight, clouds will continue to build into the area and light showers associated with the MCV/shortwave to the south will begin moving into the area.

Conditions Sunday are anticipated to be increasingly influenced b y scattered showers and storms, taking our high temperatures down a notch or two on their way into the lower 80s. Model soundings indicate that there will be a bit more life to the vertical wind profiles tomorrow afternoon, with potential ambient vorticity and CAPE giving the area a sneaky chance at seeing funnels form underneath a few of the updrafts and eventual storms that do occur during the afternoon hours. Nevertheless, large-scale severe weather will remain low through the early forecast as the more potent flow remains locked away north of the area.

Monday and Beyond:

The extended forecast remains marred by unseasonably hot temperatures that are forecast to move in to start the work week. Highs that started out in the 80s for the weekend trend quickly upwards, into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees Monday before highs push into the 90s area-wide through Wednesday and "cool" back down into the 80s Thursday/Friday. While heat indices don't get to our traditional criteria for Heat Advisory, the early nature of this heat wave in addition to our recent humidity indicates that the overall Heat Risk -- a wider view on how heat may stress people and facilities that respond to heat-related illness. As of now, Tuesday and Wednesday pushes the heat risk into the Major category, making any messaging related to staying cool and hydrated a must. Taking a look at precipitation chances remnants of the MCV combined with an additional mid/upper wave will move rain chances through the area late Monday, with intermittent activity remaining through the work week being lobbed from the Front Range of the Rockies through the area by troughing to the west. The timing and existence of those rain chances do add a lot of uncertainty to the high temperature forecast for next week, and we've laid off messaging things too strongly related to that heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the majority of the TAF period, with a few low clouds floating along between KLNK and KOMA at FL021 while gradually lifting. Winds will be out of the southeast and have been coming in a bit lighter than previously forecast, with speeds still expected to reach over 10 kts this afternoon before falling off again overnight. A few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon/early evening, but should stay to the southeast of KOMA. Otherwise MVFR ceilings move in sunrise to mid-morning tomorrow at KLNK then KOMA, as scattered light showers move in from the south.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

3-7" or more fell in the Turkey/Swan Creek basins late yesterday evening into the overnight hours, with additional rainfall ending up in the Big Blue basin as well. Turkey Creek has reacted strongly near De Witt, which is forecast to hit minor flood stage later this evening, while local reaches of the Big Blue wait until Monday/Tuesday to crest in action to flood stage. Confidence in the forecasts for the Big Blue will increase as we go forward, with potential flood warning to be issued if the current forecast near Dorchester holds going forward.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.