Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will cool into the 30s tonight, with temperatures near freezing in parts of northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions will bring very high to extreme fire danger again Monday and Wednesday.

- The next good chance for rain and thunderstorms arrives during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Today through Wednesday...

Temperatures dipped into the mid to upper 30s overnight, with a few locations dipping closer to 30 early this morning. A weak disturbance moving northeast of us, over southern MN into eastern IA, managed to kick up some light radar returns across the eastern fringes of our area this morning. However, it appears that little to no precipitation managed to make it to the surface.

High pressure will continue to drift into eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa from our west today, bringing clearing skies, warmer temperatures and notably lighter winds compared to yesterday. By noon, temperatures had reached the low to mid 50s in northeast Nebraska, and into the 60s across southeast Nebraska.

An upper ridge will continue to edge eastward, into the Central Plains, through the first half of the week. Temperatures will climb a little each day, through Wednesday. Lows on Monday morning will start in the mid to upper 30s, though a few locations may glance the low 30s over northeast Nebraska and west Central Iowa. By the afternoon, expect highs to reach the low 70s across western Iowa and the mid to upper 70s in eastern Nebraska. Dry air will accompany the warmth, with minimum relative humidities falling to 15 to 30 percent. Southerly winds will increase Monday morning, with a boost from a passing LLJ. A few gusts up to 20-30 mph will be possible. Short range models hint that surface winds will wane slightly from late morning into the early afternoon, as the jet moves out, but increase again through the afternoon with additional gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Additionally, forecast soundings suggest slightly deeper mixing could yield drier conditions with gusts up to 30 mph possible through the afternoon. Given the dry conditions and breezy winds, Very High Fire Danger is likely on Monday and a few pockets of Extreme Fire Danger will be possible, especially across parts of far northeast and east-central Nebraska.

Night time lows only fall to the mid 40s and 50s Monday night/Tuesday morning, squashing any fears of frost/freeze. A surface high will nudge into the region on Tuesday, sufficiently weakening winds and limiting Fire Weather concerns. Highs Tuesday are expected to reach the low to mid 80s.

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the next approaching low will drive an increase in winds for Wednesday. Expect the combination of continued dry conditions, highs in the 80s and breezy winds will yield another round of Very High to Extreme fire danger.

Thursday and Beyond...

Guidance remains consistent in pushing a strong trough through the Plains mid to late-week. Although exact details, including timing, remain uncertain at this time, this system will likely bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Machine learning models currently hint that the best chance for a few strong to severe storms in or near the forecast area would be late Wednesday and Thursday, with SPC also highlighting a 15% risk across southeastern Nebraska and western Iowa Thursday.

Expect another brief cool-down behind this system as we head into the weekend, before temperatures likely rebound once again the following week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds will gradually veer to the southwest overnight, eventually becoming gusty with speeds up to 12-15 kts and gusts up to 20-25 after 12Z Monday morning.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. IA...None.