Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Rain and storm chances return on Sunday and extend into next week. Low chances for severe weather through next week.

- Expect heavy rainfall with any storms that develop as PWATs reach near record territory Sunday through mid next week.

- Increasing trend with temperature and humidity through next week. Heat indices reach the 90s early week and even near 100 by mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure is currently keeping conditions dry and relatively comfortable across Middle Tn today. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs warming into the mid to upper 80s (around 90 in some spots), accompanied by gradually increasing humidity from the increased southerly flow. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s under increasing clouds.

Storm chances remain very low this afternoon supporting decent outdoor plans for the first half of this weekend. Sunday marks the shift to a wetter pattern as the high pressure moves offshore and surface boundary develops over TN, influenced by a trough to the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially in the afternoon and evening, with the highest chances est of I-65. Instability and Gulf moisture will support convection, but activity should remain mostly scattered. The severe weather risk remains low, but any isolated stronger storms could still pose a threat for gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours.

Highs on Sunday will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s due to cloud additional cloud cover and surrounding precipitation, while overnight lows only dip into the low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The trough will continue influencing the region Monday, bringing another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Models suggest abundant moisture will be in place with decent instability, but the severe storm risk will be low. This is largely due to the lacking wind shear. A few isolated strong storms will once again be possible, but not expecting any organized severe threat. Model soundings show PWATs of +1.50 inches so any storms that do form will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall.

For the rest of the week, expect more typical summertime pattern with diurnal isolated to scattered storms possible each day amid building heat and moisture, even as a ridge rebuilds to the west mid week. Once again, the severe potential remains low for this time period.

High will trend warmer next week. Expect upper 80s to low 90s by mid week, with some 90+ days (especially Wednesday onward as we see more ridge influence). Dew points will remain elevated, leading to muggy conditions and causing heat indices to reach the upper 90s (even breaking 100 degrees for some). Overnight lows will hover in the upper 60s to low 70s. Stay hydrated, take breaks in the shade or stay indoors during peak heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Surface high pressure has now drifted off the Carolina coast, although an upper ridge remains locked in place over Middle Tennessee. So we can expect VFR wx the remainder of today and tonight. Winds will go light/calm by sunset. Tomorrow, a surface boundary is expected to develop to our immediate north, and when combined with increased moisture advection coming from the south, we do expect MVFR ceilings to develop by midday, with a PROB30 group being included in the BNA TAF during the afternoon period to account for TS/CB probabilities.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.