Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late today into this evening. Any storm could produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

2) High risk of rip currents along Atlantic-facing beaches today.

3) Conditions turn drier and briefly cooler by Monday, before becoming more unsettled with heat and humidity building mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... Another hot afternoon ahead, H850 temps progged +16C to +18C, will allow surface temperatures to climb well into the 80s for most and lower 90s in the urban NYC metro and NE NJ corridor. Humidity remains relatively low in comparison though, dew pts in the 50s and lower 60s, and heat indices should stay near actual air temperatures. Given this, no heat headlines warranted.

Through the day, a shortwave trough driving east will help shunt the ridging in place locally and cause heights to fall. Associated surface low pressure moves through Quebec, dragging a cold front toward the region into tonight.

The heat this afternoon should help build modest instability, with soundings indicating CAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/kg across the interior. Forcing begins to increase further by late day as the prefrontal trough works in ahead of the approaching boundary, instigating scattered showers and thunderstorms across Upstate NY and Central PA, before the activity sags south and east into the local Tri State.

Latest SPC outlook continues to expand the slight risk (level 2/5) across most of the forecast area now, with the exception of far eastern LI. The primary threat from any thunderstorm looks to be damaging winds. Upwards of 1000 J/kg of DCAPE punctuates the potential for downbursts, especially north and west of NYC. By early evening, strengthening unidirectional shear values with the waning instability should help transition the convection from multicellular into more broken lines and possible bowing segments as it reaches the coast.

Working against a more substantial threat is the later expected timing that likely misses peak diurnal heating for most, especially along the coast. Additionally, any convective debris prior to the main activity could help to inhibit downstream development, but confidence in this occurring is low. Limited moisture profiles could also restrain the severe threat. The NAM3km hints at this, depicting much more limited convective coverage. Overall though, latest CAMs early this morning keep the bulk of the activity out of the local forecast area through the afternoon, before working into the LoHud Valley and NE NJ into the early evening hours, then spreading to the coast and offshore through mid to late evening.

Heavy downpours with any thunderstorm could lead to minor urban and poor drainage flooding, with sufficient storm motion likely mitigating anything more significant. The overall flash flood risk is low, though can't entirely rule out a localized threat.

The convection gradually works offshore after midnight, and drier conditions advect in with the trailing cold front moving through the region into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2

There is a high risk for rip current development today at all local ocean beaches. Increasing SW flow 15 to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft swells w/ 8 sec periods drive this threat. Additional detail in Marine section.

.KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level trough axis swings through on Sunday as the surface low works through northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes.

Temperatures remain above normal on Sunday, with mixing and a west wind to start helping temperatures along the coast get into the mid to upper 80s. The cold pool aloft could allow a few additional showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon, especially across S CT where forcing should be highest. Still, coverage appears rather limited, more isolated to widely scattered, and most should across the region should remain dry through the day.

High pressure then builds down from the north, moving overhead into Tuesday. This will allow dry conditions with temperatures returning closer to, but still above, normal for early June. Highs Monday afternoon range from around 80 along the coast, to low to mid 80s inland.

The pattern could become a bit more unsettled mid to late week as high pressure shifts offshore, and a warm, moist flow develops around the ridge. With this, expect increasing humidity with the hot afternoons, and heat indices could approach 100F in some areas by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A pre-frontal trough moves across the area this evening followed by a cold front passage on Sunday.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening. Arrival time appears to be 22z-00z for NYC terminals on N and W, 00z-02z, western Long Island and southwest Connecticut terminals, and 02-04z for eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Strong, gusty winds may accompany the showers/storms with a wind shift to the W-NW and potential for brief gusts up to 50 kt. The showers/storms should weaken as they move east of the NYC metro, but gusty winds 35-45 kt possible.

Outside of showers/storms, SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon and early afternoon. Winds will veer to the WSW-W tonight as wind speeds weaken to under 10 kt. W-NW flow increases Sunday morning, becoming 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt late morning into the afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

End times of frequent wind gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this evening.

Amendments for timing of showers/thunderstorms this evening likely. PROB30 could become TEMPO.

Gusts to 50 kt possible if any storms become severe.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Sunday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Isolated shower/storm possible eastern CT in the afternoon and evening. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt in the afternoon/early evening.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. SW wind gusts 20 kt possible Wednesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean from 2 pm this afternoon until 6 am Sunday. Strengthening SW flow today will build ocean seas to around 5 ft on the ocean, with wind gusts near 25 kt developing as well.

Elsewhere, the SW flow appears marginal for a SCA, so opted to continue without one for now, though it's possible winds could approach 25 kt for a period this afternoon and evening, and a headline may still be needed should conditions warrant.

Flow becomes W/NW on Sunday behind a departing cold front. Speeds are modeled to remain below SCA levels, with seas on the ocean subsiding to around 4 ft.

Below SCA conditions are then expected with high pressure in control through at least midweek.

Rip Currents...

There is a high risk for rip current development today at all local ocean beaches. Increasing SW flow 15 to 20 kt and 3 to 4 ft swells w/ 8 sec periods drive this threat.

Sunday's risk remains moderate for now with a bit weaker flow that turns more parallel to the shoreline, but it is possible the risk could increase to high during the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 97 (2021) KBDR: 93 (2021) KNYC: 98 (1925) KLGA: 95 (2021) KJFK: 90 (1968) KISP: 90 (2021)

Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

Saturday, June 6

KEWR: 71 (2021) KBDR: 67 (2025) KNYC: 77 (1925) KLGA: 76 (2021) KJFK: 69 (2024) KISP: 68 (2024)

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075- 078>081-176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.