Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across parts of northwest and western Oklahoma today into this week.

- Low rain chances Monday night into Tuesday across southern OK and western north TX. Amounts likely light.

- Storm chances and potential for severe weather return by Thursday for at least portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Dry and breezy conditions are in place early this afternoon, especially across western/northwestern OK where elevated to near- critical fire weather is being observed. With relative humidity values hovering near 10-20%, expect fire weather to continue to be a concern the remainder of the afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 8 pm this evening. Winds will remain breezy overnight but relative humidity values will recover modestly into the 50-60% range late tonight. With breezy south winds and increased mixing temperatures will not be nearly as chilly as the past couple nights, with lows in the mid 40s to near 50 in most spots.

Ware

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Breezy and dry conditions will continue on Monday across northwest Oklahoma, though relative humidity values will not be quite as low (closer to 20-30%) which will limit fire weather to elevated. To the south, clouds will be on the increase as a weak wave interacts with moisture return on the back side of the ridge across Texas. As this wave lifts northeastward, showers and a few thunderstorms will approach the area Monday night into Tuesday morning across roughly the southern third to southern half of the area. Activity will be fighting some dry air in the low levels which will likely limit the northward extent of rain chances and precipitation amounts. Most areas will see a tenth of an inch or less, but a few isolated locations could pick up a bit more. Lingering clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures cooler across central and southeast OK Tuesday , with highs only in the 60s to near 70. Elsewhere across western/northern OK, fewer clouds will allow highs to warm into the 70s to low 80s.

Ware

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A mid-level ridge moves out of the area Wednesday with our next potential system moving in by Thursday. A dryline is expected to mix eastward across western Oklahoma Thursday, with near critical fire weather concerns behind the dryline, and storm chances to the east of the dryline. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of northern, central, and southwestern Oklahoma.

A cold front is expected to make its way through the area late Thursday into Friday, bringing high temperatures down back into the 70s through the weekend.

Bunker

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail with gusty southwest winds backing this evening with diminishing speeds overnight. Gusty southerly winds return on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014.

TX...None.