Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Areas of showers and storms through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall may create areas of flooding.

- Strong and isolated severe storms may develop today and tonight with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a potential for triple digit heat.

NEAR TERM

(Through Saturday Night) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area today. Some of this rainfall has been very heavy. For example, the west Texas mesonet station near Odell TX (northern Wilbarger County) recorded 6.4 inches of rain yesterday. The coverage of rain should continue to expand across a wider area today as the slow-moving upper low approaches the area. Very high precipitable water values are forecast so locally heavy rainfall will again be an issue. The DESI (Dynamic ensemble-based scenarios for IDSS) system shows areas of 20 to 60 percent chance of rainfall amounts over 3" through Sunday using HREF and a 25 km neighborhood radius. With these factors, we are issuing a Flood Watch through Sunday for much of the area (except the north). These areas of heavy rainfall may not be too widespread given the expected convective nature of the storms, but will likely see some local areas receive significant rainfall.

Although heavy rainfall is the most likely form of significant weather today, there is the potential for strong to isolated severe storms today and tonight as well. CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg is forecast with weakening CIN, especially across the east and southeast. Wind shear in general is not very strong, so storms may not be too persistent. We are also looking at a somewhat persistent signal in the NAM of localized enhanced shear and low-level instability in our western north Texas area late this evening and overnight. This may be a product of convective feedback in the model, but if an enhancement does develop, this could locally increase the severe weather potential in this area overnight tonight.

NBM and the HRRR did not do very well yesterday with the precipitation probabilities. They may be doing better today with the forcing from the upper low approaching and being more in line with some of the other convective models that did much better yesterday, but still made some adjustments to the POPs looking at the broader range of CAMs.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The showers and thunderstorms continue and push east through Sunday afternoon, with precipitation chances decreasing from west to east through the day as the upper low opens into a trough and this trough moves east across the area. Again locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially in the east. Although the Flood Watch is valid through Sunday afternoon, the current expectation is that some of the western portions of the watch can be trimmed earlier as the best potential of precipitation shifts east.

After this upper trough moves to the east and northeast of the area, upper-level ridging develops over the southern Plains beginning a transition to a warmer and generally dry pattern beginning Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

There is now a signal that this ridging over the southern Plains will weaken or shift eastward as a longwave trough develops across the western United States by mid-week. Although we still remain in a warm pattern with southwesterly flow aloft, it may not be quite as hot late in the week as anticipated earlier. The longwave trough does weaken as it moves toward the Plains (primarily the northern Plains) and it is unclear how far south any forcing will be as this trough moves east, but there is at least a low potential for showers/storms with this, primarily Thursday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Conditions across our terminals will vary from VFR to MVFR at least through 00Z due to the low cloud base alternating from scattered to broken as well as rising and lowering. Will see storm activity increase again after 00Z as an upper low tracks south to north over our area. TSRA probabilities are high enough for TEMPO groups by 20-21Z for terminals KSPS & KLAW then after 00Z for our remaining terminals. Terminals conditions may further deteriorate to an IFR category after 04Z due to lowering ceilings and periods of reduced visibilities in rain associated with convection overhead. Surface winds will be variable and becoming gusty from storm activity as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ011>013-015>048- 050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.