Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- One more night/day of seasonal chill is expected. There is up to a 10% chance temperatures will dip below 40F tonight.

- A warming trend commences by Tuesday, with 80F in reach the back half of the week. The best such chance is Thursday, when there is a 70-90% chance 80F is reached or exceeded.

- Best rain/storm chances come toward the week's end. This includes a 15% chance storms are strong/severe, and about a 50% chance we see upwards to an inch or better rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Cool surface high pressure shifts east by Tuesday, allowing return flow southerlies to warm us up again for the back half of the week. So after another 24-36 hours of seasonal cool, temperatures will begin to reach more solidly and expansively into and thru the 70s by Tuesday; 80s make some appearances thereafter. For reference, climo normal highs/lows run near 70F/50F this time of year. Breezy and at times gusty S-SW winds buoy the warmup, and are perhaps highest in gust potential to 25-30 mph Tuesday and again Thursday-Friday. The NBM/DESI indicates about a 40% chance we'll see gusts in excess of 25 mph Tuesday and Friday, and closer to a 60% chance we'll see it Thursday.

It looks like the ridging is strong enough here to preclude most weekday pcpn chances with the commencing warmup, as the ridge kinda shunts around us any qpf the models try to develop. As a result, non-zero pops remain silent until closer to the end of the week. That's when a more robust system takes shape and enters the forecast picture with better shower/storm chances. We are included in a SLGT risk mention for day 6 at this writing, attendant to best chances to our south. We'll see how that metamorphosizes over the course of the week but regardless of svr or not, it offers our next best chance of rain, with peak pops in the late Thursday night thru Friday evening time frame. The NBM QPF output shows potential to approach an inch, while the DESI/NBM suggests close to a 50% chance of exceeding 0.75". More/lingering pops Saturday could add to these totals a little.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

High pressure anchors the forecast and provides Visual Flight Rules weather for all terminals this package. Gridded time/height cross sections do indicate potential SCT-BKN VFR bases in the 5-10K range late tonight-early tmrw, mainly from KMVN-KEVV-KOWB.

PAH WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.