Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Baca County today due to gusty winds and low humidity. Fire Weather Watch in effect for Prowers and Baca Counties on Monday.

- Widespread dangerous fire weather conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday across the most of the region.

- Cooler and unsettled late week into the weekend, with rain and snow chances increasing

UPDATE

Issued at 802 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Updated to expire the Freeze Warning at 8 AM as temperatures have risen into the lower 30s across much of the Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Upper ridge begins to build over the area today, with lee surface trough roughly along I-25. Fairly stout pressure gradient across the far sern plains for much of the day, with winds gusting over 40 mph likely across mainly Baca County, where Red Flag Warning is in effect. Elsewhere on the plains, pressure gradient slackens greatly, so although air mass will be very dry, we won't have enough wind for critical fire weather conditions. Over the mountains and valleys, some indications of at least briefly gusty winds through the Arkansas Valley from Salida to Canon City, especially late morning, before speeds decrease mid/late afternoon and 7h flow weakens. While we could see some brief periods of high fire danger, it doesn't appear at this point that winds aloft and at the surface will support widespread Red Flag conditions, so will hold off on any highlights for now. Maxes today recover quickly from cold morning lows, and a few spots on the plains will approach 80f by late afternoon. Tonight, winds decrease but dry air remains, suggesting another cool night, though most locations on the plains will stay above freezing.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

On Monday, surface pressure pattern looks similar to Sunday, as lee trough continues along I-25 and tight gradient persists over the sern corner. Kept the fire weather watch in place for Baca/Prowers counties as a result, as many models show the potential for gusty winds in the late afternoon/early evening. Generally dry and warm with less wind elsewhere, though some modest mid-leve moisture begins to spread northward across the mountains by late day, bringing a few sprinkles/flurries to mainly the higher terrain along the Continental Divide. Upper ridge begins to drift east of Colorado Tuesday, with enough mid-level moisture for afternoon showers (maybe an isolated thunderstorm) over the higher terrain, though again surface layer will be rather dry, so mainly sprinkles/flurries/wind with most activity. Doesn't appear we'll have enough wind for critical fire weather conditions at most locations, though will still have to watch areas over the far southeast plains ahead of the lee trough, where surface gradient looks just strong enough to generate some gusty winds over 20 mph in the afternoon. Max temps continue their march upward, with 70s/80s widespread at lower elevations, perhaps close to 90f over the lower Arkansas Valley.

Deep upper trough moves into the Great Basin on Wednesday, with first piece of upper energy ejecting into the nrn plains on Thursday. Set-up will bring strong southwest flow across much of Colorado on Wednesday, with upper jet pushing into wrn Colorado during the afternoon. Mid-level winds increase to 40-50 kts at 7h, with 5h winds of 50-70 kts late in the day. As a result, Wed looks hot/dry/windy, with high end Red Flag conditions over almost the entire region as RH falls below 10 percent and surface winds gust over 50 mph. There is even the potential for PDS Red Flag conditions in a few spots over the ern mountains/San Luis Valley/Fremont County, where winds will be strongest. Still windy on Thu ahead of second piece of upper energy sweeping through the central Rockies, though critical fire weather conditions are a little less clear cut, as moisture and perhaps some showers will reach the mountains during the day, while a cold front will sweep south through the plains at some point as well. Still expect most of the plains to see high/extreme fire danger once again, though delineation of the actual area of critical conditions is far from clear at this point.

Once cold front moves through late Thu, pattern shifts toward cooler/potentially wetter conditions as upper trough lingers over the Rockies and series of hard to time upper disturbances move through the region. Model spread is rather high on timing and strength of various waves from Fri into the weekend, so stuck with NBM for now, which portrays a rather prolonged broad brush of higher pops from Fri into Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain diurnally driven at all sites.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ236-237. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ237.