Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty westerly winds and low relative humidities today bring widespread critical fire weather concerns.

* Temperatures cool off to near or slightly below early June averages Sunday through much of next week.

* Gusty winds and shower chances return early next week, then drying out and warming up late-week.

DISCUSSION

A dry cold front will be moving through tonight, increasing winds out ahead of it. Tight pre-frontal pressure gradients in far western NV are driving peak wind gusts up to 45 mph, though northeast CA and western NV are more likely to see 30-40 mph. Choppy lakes can be expected today, so please check the weather conditions if planning on recreating today. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for the aforementioned areas, as we're likely to see up to 9-10 hours of Red Flag conditions. The SPC also put the eastern portions of our CWA (Churchill and Pershing counties) in a Critical Risk level today in their Fire Weather Outlook. Since it's a weekend, use caution today and don't do any activities that could cause a spark!

Temperatures begin to cool off today, then continue to cool more through mid-week as a deeper low digs farther south. Temperatures bottom out close to average for this time of year, if not a few degrees below average towards the middle of next week. Highs across western NV valleys will be in the mid 70s, and low 60s in the Sierra. Some variation in the models exists as to how far south the low will move, leading to conflicting potential for rain early next week. As it stands this morning, precip chances of 20-40% begin Monday and continue through Tuesday, then decrease to 10-15% by Wednesday. There are some signs in the models of some precip shadowing along the Sierra Front and into western NV with this system, which means wind will be the main concern in those areas. Winds on Monday are trending stronger than today's winds, and there are signs of some downslope winds with an inversion around ridgetop level, so that'll be something we keep an eye on. Otherwise, long range models are hinting at a rather robust ridge moving in at the end of next week, bringing temperatures back up to above average for next weekend.

-Justin

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail today with no chance for precipitation. Main concern will be increasing SW-W winds this afternoon, with gusts 30-35 kt. FL100 winds out of the west at 30-35 kt may cause turbulence and pockets of LLWS over the Sierra and Sierra Front today. Otherwise, winds weaken overnight into Sunday and we stay dry with scattered mid-level clouds.

-Justin

FIRE WEATHER

A Red Flag Warning has been issued and is valid for this afternoon and evening across western NV and portions of northeast CA. There's a 60% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph in western NV along the US-50 corridor, otherwise 50-70% chance of gusts greater than 30 mph over western NV and northeast CA. Minimum RH generally 9-13% in NV valleys and 10-18% in northeast CA. Longer critical wind/RH overlap supports 9-10 hours of Red Flag conditions across western NV and into eastern Lassen County. Other areas such as lower Mono County valleys, including the Chalfant Valley, will also see a couple hours of elevated fire weather conditions.

-Justin

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-423-429-458.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-004.

Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ003.

CA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ278.

Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ073.