Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry and mild weather prevails this weekend with increased afternoon breezes today.

* Periods of gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow are expected between Monday and Wednesday.

* Warmer and drier weather returns late this week, but with lingering shower chances.

DISCUSSION

Clouds are moving in from the west, and will continue to filter in overhead through today. Southerly winds will increase later today, bringing gusts of 20 mph to the leeside valleys and up to 35 mph along the ridges. Cloud cover may limit some daytime warming today, especially over the Sierra. The same cloud cover may then act as an insulating blanket layer overnight tonight, keeping overnight lows noticeably warmer than previous nights.

The next system has been delaying it's arrival for the past few days. When we initially locked eyes on this closed low, it was trying to arrive as early as Sunday into Monday. Now, it has been pushed back a few days, with winds increasing Monday evening ahead of the incoming system. The possibility of wind gusts of 45 mph for the area on Monday and especially Tuesday is 50-90%. Wind prone areas may see gusts reaching 60-65 mph on Tuesday, with a focus of the Basin and Range for the core of the higher winds. Showers will begin to show up on radar overnight Monday into Tuesday, when snow levels start off around 7500-8000 feet. By sunrise, the snow levels will begin dropping across northeastern California to around 6500 feet, with the southern Sierra dropping to around 7500 feet. The trend of falling snow levels will continue through Wednesday as the front passes and our shower chances move eastward.

For the snow amounts in the duration of the storm, a 30% chance for up to 12 inches exists along the Sierra passes. High sun angle of recent will help the ground remain relatively warm, but the falling snow levels and intensity of showers may also align with dark skies, which would limit the impacts of the warm ground on melting snow. As in recent systems, slushy wet snow on roads is likely, with elevated surfaces accumulating more readily. Travel may become difficult late Tuesday into Wednesday, so prepare ahead of time with alternate travel plans or winter weather gear if you must travel. One hazard worth mention will be a 10-20% chance for embedded lightning in showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Once this system exits to the east for Thursday, we will resume a gradual warming trend that will bring us to the weekend. The model solutions are presenting potential for a system as early as next Sunday, but since the past few storms have been timing later into the forecast, we will reserve our assessment until guidance comes into agreement. HRICH

AVIATION

* VFR conditions and light winds through this afternoon, with gusts increasing to around 20 kts this afternoon for western Nevada valley terminals, and up to 25 kts for Sierra terminals.

* Late Monday into Tuesday, KSVE will start to see showers moving in, and by Tuesday morning the majority of terminals will see rain, snow, winds and possible lightning. HRICH

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.