Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze watch issued for the area Monday night/early Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A shortwave will drop south into the region this evening, with light precipitation, and a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Frost advisories and freeze warnings have been issued. Additional freeze watch issued Monday night/Tuesday morning.

2) Another front drops south into the area mid week, with light precipitation expected. Low relative humidity in the afternoons, combined with occasional gusty winds at times this week will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Becoming unsettled again towards the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave will move across the area tonight, bringing light precipitation to the area, and a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Precipitation across most of the area should generally fall in the form of rain, but across the higher terrain, snow or a rain/snow mix is expected. With the colder air moving into the region, frost advisories and freeze warnings have been issued for much of the area, outside of the extreme southern zones. In terms of the lowlands, best area for these conditions is SE Ohio, NE KY and Mid Ohio Valley zones, where better clearing will take place as the wave continues to trek south and east. Sheltered valleys will be most susceptible to the cold. Monday will also be quite cool as of late, with a northerly flow across the area.

High pressure will then build into the region for Monday into Tuesday, with a very dry air mass taking hold. Afternoon relative humidity both days will bottom out in the 20 to 30 percent range, with pockets of teens not completely out of the question. With the dry air mass in place, expecting a clear, cold night for Monday night. A freeze watch has been issued for Monday night/Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another shortwave will drop into the area on Wednesday. This will provide the potential for another round of light precipitation to the area, and bring a temporary reprieve to the critically low RH. However, high pressure and upper ridging will take hold again, with a return of above normal temperatures, and very dry conditions, with continued fire weather concerns. However, by the end of the week into the weekend, there are indications of unsettled weather taking hold, with chances for showers and storms area wide, and possibly some relief to the overly dry conditions as of late.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Gusty northwesterly winds with occasional gusts in the 20 to lower 30 kt range at times through 23Z when winds will gradually decrease, but still remain gusty at times overnight across the higher terrain. Otherwise, VFR through 03Z to 06Z, when a disturbance will move across the area, creating local/areas of MVFR ceilings and visibilities in light rain and snow showers. Greater possibility for these conditions across the north and east and the mountains. After 12-15Z expect a return to VFR conditions, with gusty northwesterly winds developing again.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions in precipitation could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR anticipated.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for WVZ006>011- 014>020-026>032-034-039-040-515>521-524. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for WVZ522-523- 525-526. OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for OHZ076-083- 085>087. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for OHZ066-067- 075-084. KY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for VAZ003-004.