Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Early morning aviation update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warmer air will return today, making for a warming trend that will persist into the end of the workweek. Arrival of a cold front during the weekend will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer air will return today, making for a warming trend that will persist into the end of the workweek. Arrival of a cold front during the weekend will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Upper level ridging will intensify through the remainder of the workweek, making for a gradual warming trend that will take high temperatures this afternoon from near-normal for the 2nd half of April to summer-like during Thursday and Friday.

A cold front near the Great Lakes region will sink southward to northern Virginia on Wednesday evening, bringing a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of Route 460 on Wednesday afternoon/evening before the front returns northward during early Thursday. Another chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will take place on Saturday as the cold front advances southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic. Rainfall amounts through the weekend are not forecast to be impressive for most, though localized totals approaching an inch are possible where stronger thunderstorms occur. Overall, rainfall totals through the 28th are not forecast to bring much, if any, relief from the existing drought conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR flight conditions are forecasted for all terminals through the 21/06Z TAF period. Winds will remain near calm through this morning, with gusts increasing into the 10kt to 15kt range from the south-southwest during early afternoon. Speeds will return to near calm during early evening through the remainder of the night, setting up a potential for localized windshear conditions across the mountains as speeds increase to nearly 40kts within 2kft of the surface. Skies will start the day mostly clear, becoming a mixture of scattered mid and high-level clouds toward sunset.

Confidence in the above forecast is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Anticipate isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon as a cold front enters northern Virginia. The best chance of impacts will be at LWB, with lowering ceilings, possibly bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Tranquil and mainly VFR conditions will then return for Thursday into Friday afternoon, when another cold front will enter the Mid-Atlantic region. This will bring the potential for sub-VFR ceilings and scattered rounds of shower activity with localized embedded thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Expect another dry day for today under abundant sunshine, with afternoon temperatures warming to near-normal for the second half of April. With high pressure passing overhead this morning, winds will shift from the southwest today, with gusts during the afternoon increasing into the 12 mph to 20 mph range. With lower wind speeds today compared to those of Monday, do not see the need for a Fire Danger Statement, however minimum relative humidity this afternoon will range from 15 to 22 percent across much of the lower Mid-Atlantic, allowing fuels to remain dry and readily available to carry fire.

As a cold front approaches from the north on Wednesday, winds will shift from the west, with speeds during the afternoon increasing into the 20 mph to 30 mph range, with ridgetop gusts reaching to 35 mph.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059. NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ042>044-507- 508.