Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Air Quality Alert for Stokes, Rockingham and Caswell Counties in North Carolina until midnight tonight.

Aviation updated.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east for Sunday afternoon and evening look less likely to be severe. However a locally damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest storms.

Otherwise increasing heat next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGES

1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east for Sunday afternoon and evening look less likely to be severe. However a locally damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest storms.

2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal temperatures for the Piedmont at times. A return to daily convection as well.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the east for Sunday afternoon and evening look less likely to be severe. However a locally damaging wind gust may be possible with the strongest storms.

A cold front stretching from New England through the OH Valley and westward will gradually shift south reaching our doorstep late Sunday into Monday. Tomorrow afternoon and evening, scattered thunderstorms will develop in north central VA and may edge into eastern parts of our forecast area as daytime heating contributes to marginal instability and the cold front nears. At this time the lack of instability will mean we are mostly expecting garden variety showers and thunderstorms, with a Marginal chance for a few storms to become strong to severe. Locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest cells.

Key Message 2: Warm temperatures expected, with well above normal temperatures for the Piedmont at times. A return to daily convection as well.

Behind the cold front, high pressure attempts to build in behind but is quickly shifted east Tuesday by a warm frontal system moving out of the Midwest and into the TN Valley. This will also herald an increase in moisture and a more complete break down of the Omega Block. This should lead to an increase in mid level energy in our vicinity and support increased chances for precipitation for much of next week. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms next week, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

As far as sensible weather, today and Sunday look like the warmest days, with the Piedmont creeping into the low to even mid 90s in the afternoons. On Monday I lowered highs a bit as the cold front is expected to be through the area. Even if it is not, cloud cover should keep temperatures from getting too hot. Although we will be well above normal for temperatures in the Piedmont, any record-breaking heat will remain outside of our forecast area. That said, it will seem quite hot with humidity also gradually increasing this week. Wednesday through Friday look especially muggy.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected through most of the valid TAF period. Expect an increase in mid and high clouds at times for all terminals. High end MVFR or low VFR may develop for LWB by tomorrow afternoon as moisture increases ahead of a cold front. Likewise isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly at LWB and perhaps to LYH by 07/18Z (but more likely after 18Z for LYH).

Light westerly winds through 18Z tomorrow with the occasional gust to 20 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Scattered convection tomorrow night diminishes after 08/00Z, possibly affecting LWB, ROA, and LYH before it ends. On Monday, some additional SHRA/TSRA will be possible mainly for BLF and BCB. After that, expect daily chances for SHRA/TSRA in the afternoons and evenings at all terminals.

Winds take on a more northerly component in the mountains tomorrow evening with increasing gusts to 25 knots. Sunday night winds will be light and variable. A more easterly component develops to the winds by Monday with few gusts to 20 knots.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ004>006. WV...None.