Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- A gradual warm-up from seasonable conditions will continue through the middle of this week.

- Near-daily rain chances return by Tuesday, with more rain falling by next weekend for widespread 1-inch totals likely in the next 7 days.

- Our environment will become more conducive for another round of severe weather by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Active weather will continue through most of this week with a brief quasi-lull from surface ridging that shifts further eastward across the Mississippi River. This will place the Four State Region on its western periphery, re-introducing onshore flow and surface moisture. The 60-degree isodrosotherm will return from the southwest through the area by early Wednesday as a result, coinciding with the next chances of rain. Aloft, the synoptic pattern will begin to reload the atmospheric column with moisture as longwave troughing across the Intermountain West starts to eject into the Great Plains. As it does so, it positions the subtropical jet stream across the western Sun Belt states and boosts moist mid-level southwesterly flow across Texas (PWAT values likely at 1.2 to 1.6 inches). By the middle of the week and through the end of the week, this diffluent flow will maintain and aid the atmospheric environment in the promotion of sustained convective rounds. While mostly diurnally-driven by Thursday, long-range guidance suggests these convective rounds becoming more widespread by the end of the week into next weekend, including by Friday as enough CAPE and MUCAPE (likely around 1500 J/kg) could exist for the formation of robust convection. This is all along and ahead of the next frontal boundary anticipated by Friday to instigate periods of convective initiation. Until then, temperatures will gradually return above normal through the middle of the week (maximums/minimums in the low-to-mid 80s/mid-60s), while regional Day 1-7 QPF rainfall totals will range at 0.5-1.25 inches. /16/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

For the 19/18z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions throughout the period, with passing high clouds. There is a non-zero chance of some patchy fog development during the overnight and early daybreak period due to wet soils and light winds. However, confidence is low, as soils should dry out today. So, decided against adding any BR/FG in the TAFs for this period. Otherwise, expect easterly winds today to become light/variable to calm tonight, then southeasterly by the end of the period. /20/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.