Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Increasing heat is expected over the next several days. Those who are sensitive to heat or do not have access to adequate cooling or hydration could be impacted by the heat.

- A High Risk of rip currents continues along all area beaches. It is strongly discouraged to enter the surf on high risk days. Please heed the beach flags and advice of local officials.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase again next week.

SHORT TERM & LONG TERM

(This Evening through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Ridging will mostly be situated across our region Sunday into Monday. A shortwave trough will move through the mid-Mississippi Valley, drawing deep tropical moisture up and around our ridge. Our western and northern areas will be on the fringe of these higher PWATs near 2 inches while the rest of the area sees PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches. Thus, similar to today, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in our Panhandle and Alabama counties on Sunday, then mainly along and north of US 82 on Monday. Meanwhile, under the ridging, it will be quite hot with highs climbing to the low to mid 90s. The good news is that in the hotter areas, it won't be quite as humid. In areas that have the thunderstorm chances the next couple days, highs will be held back in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will also climb into the 70s, with possibly widespread mid 70s by Monday night. This level of heat with minimal nighttime recovery could affect those especially sensitive to heat and/or those with limited access to cooling or hydration.

Ridging then builds to our west over the southern Plains and mid- South with generally weak troughing over the eastern US and ridging off the Atlantic coast. Moisture will be near climatological averages, so a more normal summertime pattern should resume later this week. This means scattered showers and storms mainly along the sea breeze each afternoon. Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s to low 90s each day with lows in the 70s. With the increasing humidity through the week, heat index values and consequently heat concerns will begin to increase as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. There is a low chance of MVFR/IFR cigs and/or vis at DHN and ECP Sunday morning but confidence was too low to warrant mention in the TAF.

MARINE

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Generally gentle to moderate east to southeast flow continues for the next several days, with influence from the sea breeze near the coast each day. Outside of a few showers and storms, weather over the marine area is fairly dry through mid week. Seas will remain around 1-2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible Sunday across the Central Time Zone counties, then north of US 82 on Monday. The rest of the area remains dry both days. By Tuesday, we return to a more typical summertime regime of showers and storms along the sea breeze. Transport winds will vary a good bit over the next several days, starting from the south to southeast around 5-10 mph on Sunday, then light and variable on Monday, then becoming easterly on Tuesday. Dispersions each afternoon will be good. Min RH values will be in the upper 30s to low 50s.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Most likely rainfall totals through late next week are around a quarter to half an inch, though localized higher amounts of an inch or two are possible in heavier storms. This should not result in widespread flood concerns, both in terms of flash flooding and river flooding.

Severe to exceptional drought continues for areas generally east of the Apalachicola and Flint Rivers as these areas missed out on the most beneficial recent rains and rivers are struggling to recover. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.