Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will produce hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf Waters this next week.

- Critical RH values and gusty winds will produce hazardous fire conditions on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 High pressure aloft continues over the Gulf this afternoon while surface high pressure shifts south as a weak frontal boundary moves into northern Florida. This boundary will move across the region tonight into tomorrow morning, with a very slight increase in moisture leading to some additional clouds and a few light showers. Winds behind the front will increase out of the north/northeast as high pressure moves into the southeast. Temperatures across the local area will be closer to normal through most of the week, with dry conditions also continuing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will become north/northeast tonight into tomorrow with some gusts near 20 knots or so.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 A weak cold front will move through the waters late today and tonight, with increasing winds and seas to start the week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday, but breezy northeast to east winds will continue into midweek. Winds and seas will subside for the second half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026 High pressure ridging over the region will keep rain-free conditions over the area through tonight. The next chance of any rainfall arrives Monday afternoon as some moisture moves in behind a weak cold front, but these rain chances will be limited to the southern interior and southwest Florida. Dry air with some critical relative humidity values are expected to overspread the area Monday afternoon, and this combined with breezy northeast winds will produce some hazardous fire weather conditions, primarily across the Nature Coast. A Fire Weather Watch continues for Levy County for Monday afternoon into Monday evening. More critical relative humidity values and breezy northeast to east winds are expected for Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Coastal Levy-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.