Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Next round for storms expected late tonight and through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be the main hazards.

- Hot and humid conditions build in by next week with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values pushing above 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Weak mid-level flow persists across the central US with lingering nocturnal convection that continues to be fueled by the nose of the LLJ in southern Nebraska. Further south, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a weak cutoff low over the southern Plains that will bring out next round of storm chances by later this evening and through the day Sunday. For the remainder of the morning, some of the convection across southern Nebraska may make its way into far north-central KS, but with very weak shear, expectations are that storm cold pools will outrun the updrafts and lead to a quick weakening trend. Cannot rule out a small hail and wind gusts up to 50-55 mph if storms maintain themselves this far south, but confidence is low in this occurring. Through the day today, persistent moisture advection in association with the southern Plains upper low will begins moving north towards Kansas. Most of the day will be dry, but given afternoon thermal profiles yielding over 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and inhibition becoming minimized by 3- 5 pm, cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Minimal shear (<15 knots) will keep storm structure unimpressive with updrafts likely struggling to keep their downdrafts from cutting off inflow.

More widespread rain/storm chances build in across the area overnight into Sunday morning as the aforementioned southern Plains cutoff low moves north into the central Plains. Steering flow for showers/storms will be on the order of 10-20 mph and given PWATs in the 1.5-2.25" range, locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat Sunday. This will especially be true across areas that have already seen flooding and saturated soils from previous storms. Recent medium range solutions have begun to highlight areas across far eastern Kansas into Missouri as areas that have the best chances for seeing the highest totals of rainfall. HREF and LREF probs for QPF greater than 1 inch continue to highlight highest values (above 25%) across areas east of Topeka through the day Monday.

Rain begins to come to an end Monday PM as the upper low shifts east towards the Mississippi valley and mid-level ridging deepens over the central Plains. With little change of airmass and increasing heights aloft, hot and humid conditions will be expected starting Monday and continuing into the Thursday. Heat index values will build into the triple digits for the first time this summer, topping out in the 105-110 degree range Tuesday and Wednesday. A break may come by Thursday as a trough moving across the northern Plains helps to push a frontal boundary across the area. This should bring the next chance for precipitation to the region. NBM temperature spreads Friday and beyond are still rather large, but a downward trend in 50th percentile temperatures seems to be the trend as we make our way into mid June.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The stratus will eventually scatter out this afternoon and if we get some insolation there may be some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms around the terminals this afternoon into the early evening. After 6Z CAM guidance show the low stratus returning with ceilings between 600 to 1000 feet with a chance for rain showers The low stratus wil hang around through much of Sunday morning.

TOP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.