Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday. Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

- Minor flooding forecast for Polecat Creek near Sapulpa through Sunday morning.

- A few storms could become marginally severe mainly Sunday afternoon. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines likely.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Creek and Tulsa counties have seen the heaviest rainfall this morning, with MRMS estimates of 2 to 4 inches across a large part of this area and rainfall continuing. The Bristow Mesonet observation is approaching 6 inches of rain since midnight. The localized heavy rainfall is leading to a rapid rise on Polecat Creek near Sapulpa, with minor flooding currently forecast there later today through tomorrow morning.

Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon, primarily across portions of southeast Oklahoma where a higher likelihood of seeing some breaks in the cloudiness exists. The better chance of this appears to be just west of the forecast area, however, given current satellite observations and recent trends. Any storms in southeast Oklahoma would have potential for isolated marginally severe hail and wind, although again, the better potential for this is just west of the forecast area. The existing activity and any additional development later today will continue to push to the north and east into the evening and overnight as the upper low currently spinning over the South Texas Plains moves to the north and east. A relative lull in the coverage will likely occur from mid to late evening into early Sunday morning, with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms once again from west to east beginning just before dawn Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The immediate concern in the longer term is the increased potential for flash flooding during the day Sunday, especially given this morning/s rains. A Flood Watch has been posted from 12Z Sunday to 00Z Monday for much of northeast Oklahoma. Localized potential for 3 to 4 inches of rainfall will exist given what has occurred today and 90th percentile NBM QPF also in this range. The watch may need to be expanded south and eastward at a later time, depending on how things evolve this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning, along and west of Highway 75, having developed to the west and moved eastward along with the aforementioned upper low Saturday night. In addition to the heavy rain/flash flooding threat, a lower end severe weather threat will also exist across much of the area during the day and possibly, into the overnight. Given the location of the upper low, this will include a tornado threat. The showers and thunderstorm coverage will decrease from southwest to northeast Sunday night and into Monday.

Early next week, upper level ridging builds into the area, bringing fairly typical heat and humidity for this time of year to the region. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist Monday night near the Kansas and Missouri borders in association with a disturbance moving along the periphery of the ridge, but otherwise, a couple of days of dry weather looks likely. Heat headlines look like a good bet during the period, especially given the current rainfall and its likely impact on the dew points.

Toward the latter part of the next week, an upper level trough in the western United States will move toward the Northern and Central Plains, which looks to bring a front into the area, bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances and reduced humidity to at least northern parts of the area Friday and possibly into Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to move across all of the sites this afternoon, with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities. Some improvement is possible ern OK sites later this afternoon and across nwrn AR sites this evening. MVFR ceilings return most areas tonight with areas of fog and scattered showers. Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to develop into the area late tonight continuing into Sunday morning with continued aviation impacts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for OKZ055>067-154-254-354.

AR...None.