Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

- Low rain/storm chances return to the forecast Tuesday and linger into Wednesday, mainly across the south.

- An unsettled weather pattern is expected starting Thursday and continuing into next weekend. Multiple opportunities for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight ) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The warming trend is underway today under mostly sunny skies. South to southwest winds will pick up this afternoon to the north of I-40 with highs climbing into the 70s. The center of the surface high pressure will slide a bit farther away from our area through tonight. While not strong, a light south wind should persist across eastern OK tonight, keeping temps from dropping to what they did last night. Still, the sheltered valleys of NW AR and SE OK will radiate down cooler and will be reflected in the forecast.

Lacy

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

A subtle wave moving across TX Tuesday will bring low shower and storm chances mainly south of I-40. Some low chances will linger into Wednesday again south of I-40 in the newly established deep layer moisture plume from the Gulf. Weak flow aloft suggests a negligible severe threat.

An upper low off the West Coast will eventually open up into a progressive shortwave trough and move into the central part of the country by Thursday. The timing of the progression of the wave and the surface features is a bit faster compared to yesterday. Storm and severe potential ramps up Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of the dryline and approaching front, with the front expected to drop down into the region Thursday night. Some severe threat could linger into Friday across the south and east depending on where the front hangs up. With the main shortwave trough lifting northeast and some upper troughing hanging back over the Southwest, the pattern does not favor an aggressive frontal push. Expect this boundary to linger over or near the region into next weekend with repeated rounds of thunderstorms and accompanying threats of severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.

Temperature wise, expect near or slightly above average reading for this time of year through the forecast.

Lacy

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through tonight with light to moderate southerly winds through the period.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.