ABQ Area Forecast Discussion 98b365c7-becf-4f7c-beeb-8eb131a90c18

000 FXUS65 KABQ 191915 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 115 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Storm coverage will decrease today, but there will still be a risk of localized minor flooding mainly from the continental divide to the central mountain chain this afternoon and evening in locations where the ground is saturated from heavy rainfall that occurred the past few days.

- After a break from storms Sunday into Monday, shower and storm coverage will increase significantly as another impressive surge of monsoon moisture produces periods of locally heavy rainfall over northern and central New Mexico with a risk of flash flooding from Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

The latest water vapor satellite imagery shows the Monsoon moisture plume getting shoved east by dry westerlies rounding the base of an upper low/trough, centered over the ID/UT border. However, sufficient moisture remains for a round of robust convection as evidenced by the latest radar imagery and the 18Z KABQ sounding showing a 0.94" PWAT, which is above the 90th percentile for the calendar day. Latest CAMs progress this round of convection east into the middle and lower RGV, including the Santa Fe Metro, later this afternoon and then continue it east beyond the central mountain chain and into the adjacent eastern highlands this evening before diminishing. Sufficient shear and instability reside for a few strong to near-severe storms, with small hail and strong/erratic wind gusts likely. Storms are moving at a decent clip of 20-30mph today, which should limit the flash flood threat to training storms and the ABQ and Santa Fe Metros.

Dry air aloft will overtake NM tonight, with PWATs dropping rapidly. However, a relatively moist near-surface layer will remain and with wet grounds a decent setup for fog Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is highest in the RGV although inflated by anticipated rainfall later today. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required early Sunday morning. Sunday will be a down day a PWATs crash to the 25th percentile, which represents insufficient moisture to sustain convection.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A Pacific low will approach slowly from over central CA on Monday, while a backdoor front makes westward progress into eastern NM. Any convection that sparks Monday will be behind the backdoor front and closer to the TX/OK borders where sufficient moisture will reside. PWATs will ramp up dramatically Monday night into Tuesday as a renewed Monsoon moisture plume stands up over the region with the Pacific low on slow approach and the upper high centered over the TX coast. The Pacific low is forecast to fill and lift rapidly northeast toward the central/northern Rockies on Wednesday as the upper high remains anchored along the upper Gulf coast, which will favor a continued stream of moisture northward into NM. PWATs on Tue/Wed are forecast to challenge daily record values and the period is looking rather wet with widespread soaking rainfall. A flash flood threat will ramp-up Tue/Wed across much of the area and especially on/near area burn scars. The WPC has include much of our area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tue/Wed. Forecast uncertainty increases from Thursday onward, with the model consensus now favoring keeping tropical system offshore of MX and south of the Baja Peninsula through Saturday as the upper high ridges westward over northern MX and keeps NM from realizing a tropical moisture fetch. That said, south central, east central and southeast NM look to receive the greatest rainfall amounts from Tue-Thu, with qpf ranging from 2-3" and locally as has high as 6"!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail, but short-lived MVFR conditions are likely with scattered showers this afternoon/evening. The KABQ/KAEG/KSAF airspace will be dealing with these storms and associated gusty outflow winds between 22-01Z. Patches of low stratus/fog will likely develop tonight across central and portions of western NM, impacting KABQ, KAEG and KSAF early Sunday morning. Have included MVFR impacts from low stratus/fog in those TAFs, but LIFR conditions are possible and largely dependent on rainfall re- wetting the Rio Grande Valley later today. Otherwise, winds will generally be light.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as an active late Monsoon season pattern persists. Good chances for wetting rainfall will impact central and northern areas this afternoon/evening, followed by a downturn in storm coverage Sun/Mon as the westerlies bring in a drier airmass. A renewed Monsoon moisture plume will stand up over the region Tuesday and continue through the end of the week, with high humidity and good chances for wetting rainfall as the upper high remains centered along the upper Gulf coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Location	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day	Tonight	Tomorrow	Tomorrow night	Next day
	Temperatures				Chance of Precipitation
Farmington......................	50 ℉	80 ℉	47 ℉	80 ℉	5%	0%	0%	0%
Dulce...........................	40 ℉	78 ℉	38 ℉	78 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Cuba............................	47 ℉	75 ℉	47 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Gallup..........................	44 ℉	78 ℉	44 ℉	78 ℉	5%	0%	0%	0%
El Morro........................	45 ℉	74 ℉	45 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Grants..........................	46 ℉	78 ℉	46 ℉	77 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Quemado.........................	48 ℉	76 ℉	49 ℉	77 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Magdalena.......................	54 ℉	78 ℉	54 ℉	77 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Datil...........................	50 ℉	75 ℉	51 ℉	75 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Reserve.........................	52 ℉	81 ℉	52 ℉	81 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Glenwood........................	59 ℉	86 ℉	60 ℉	87 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Chama...........................	43 ℉	71 ℉	42 ℉	72 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Los Alamos......................	53 ℉	76 ℉	53 ℉	75 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Pecos...........................	49 ℉	78 ℉	48 ℉	76 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Cerro/Questa....................	47 ℉	75 ℉	46 ℉	74 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Red River.......................	42 ℉	65 ℉	40 ℉	65 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Angel Fire......................	33 ℉	71 ℉	30 ℉	70 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Taos............................	46 ℉	78 ℉	44 ℉	77 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Mora............................	46 ℉	77 ℉	45 ℉	73 ℉	20%	0%	0%	10%
Espanola........................	52 ℉	82 ℉	51 ℉	81 ℉	20%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Fe........................	52 ℉	77 ℉	51 ℉	76 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Santa Fe Airport................	50 ℉	79 ℉	50 ℉	79 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Foothills...........	57 ℉	81 ℉	58 ℉	81 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Heights.............	57 ℉	82 ℉	57 ℉	81 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque Valley..............	57 ℉	83 ℉	57 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Albuquerque West Mesa...........	56 ℉	82 ℉	57 ℉	81 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Belen...........................	56 ℉	84 ℉	56 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Bernalillo......................	55 ℉	83 ℉	55 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Bosque Farms....................	55 ℉	84 ℉	55 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Corrales........................	56 ℉	83 ℉	56 ℉	83 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Los Lunas.......................	55 ℉	85 ℉	55 ℉	84 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Placitas........................	55 ℉	81 ℉	55 ℉	80 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Rio Rancho......................	55 ℉	82 ℉	56 ℉	82 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Socorro.........................	60 ℉	86 ℉	61 ℉	86 ℉	30%	0%	0%	0%
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........	52 ℉	76 ℉	52 ℉	76 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Tijeras.........................	54 ℉	79 ℉	54 ℉	78 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Edgewood........................	51 ℉	80 ℉	51 ℉	79 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Moriarty/Estancia...............	46 ℉	81 ℉	47 ℉	80 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Clines Corners..................	51 ℉	78 ℉	51 ℉	75 ℉	30%	0%	0%	5%
Mountainair.....................	54 ℉	78 ℉	53 ℉	78 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Gran Quivira....................	54 ℉	79 ℉	54 ℉	79 ℉	40%	0%	0%	0%
Carrizozo.......................	61 ℉	83 ℉	60 ℉	83 ℉	10%	0%	0%	0%
Ruidoso.........................	55 ℉	77 ℉	54 ℉	76 ℉	20%	0%	0%	5%
Capulin.........................	49 ℉	77 ℉	50 ℉	71 ℉	20%	0%	30%	20%
Raton...........................	48 ℉	82 ℉	49 ℉	76 ℉	10%	0%	10%	10%
Springer........................	48 ℉	84 ℉	49 ℉	78 ℉	20%	0%	10%	10%
Las Vegas.......................	48 ℉	78 ℉	47 ℉	74 ℉	20%	0%	0%	10%
Clayton.........................	56 ℉	83 ℉	56 ℉	74 ℉	20%	5%	30%	40%
Roy.............................	54 ℉	82 ℉	54 ℉	74 ℉	20%	0%	10%	10%
Conchas.........................	60 ℉	90 ℉	59 ℉	81 ℉	20%	5%	5%	5%
Santa Rosa......................	61 ℉	87 ℉	58 ℉	80 ℉	20%	5%	0%	5%
Tucumcari.......................	61 ℉	88 ℉	59 ℉	80 ℉	20%	5%	10%	20%
Clovis..........................	61 ℉	88 ℉	60 ℉	82 ℉	20%	5%	10%	40%
Portales........................	63 ℉	89 ℉	62 ℉	84 ℉	20%	10%	10%	50%
Fort Sumner.....................	62 ℉	91 ℉	61 ℉	85 ℉	20%	10%	0%	10%
Roswell.........................	63 ℉	94 ℉	63 ℉	90 ℉	30%	5%	0%	5%
Picacho.........................	61 ℉	88 ℉	60 ℉	84 ℉	30%	10%	0%	5%
Elk.............................	57 ℉	85 ℉	57 ℉	82 ℉	20%	10%	0%	5%

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.

SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11

Area Forecast Discussion