Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Quiet and dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds will continue today, with increasing clouds and winds tonight into Wednesday as a front lifts northwest with snow showers.

- Southerly gap winds and a Tanana Valley jet will keep winds elevated through the Alaska Range passes and around Delta with gusts around 30 to 45 mph today into tonight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for north of Isabel Pass for Wednesday as wind gusts see an uptick to around 50 to 65 mph.

- A front lifting northwest throughout the day Wednesday will support light snow chances, with around a T-2" of snow possible. Highest accumulations will remain confined to the Alaska Range and north of FNSB.

- Temperatures will see a warming trend into Wednesday courtesy of with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens/20s with coldest spots in the single digits above and below zero. A cooling trend takes hold to finish out the week Thursday onwards.

- A secondary front lifting northwest late Thursday into Friday will support additional light snow chances into the start of the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light rain/snow showers will continue across the Yukon Delta, Lower Yukon Valley, and St. Lawrence Island today as dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

- Lighter winds will return today into Thursday for most, as breezy winds shift to being out of the northeast with strongest winds from Point Hope southwest through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island with gusts around 30 to 40 mph.

- A low pressure system lifting northwest on Thursday through Southwest Alaska will support an uptick in light rain/snow showers, with drier conditions farther inland.

- Temperatures will see a gradual cooling trend to finish out the week, with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the teens/20s to low 30s. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Daily snow chances will continue across the Arctic Plains and Coast this week, with total snow amounts around 1-3" east of the Lisburne Peninsula.

- A front lifting northwest late Wednesday into Thursday into the Central/Eastern Brooks Range will support snow amounts around 1-2".

- East winds will steadily ramp up along the Arctic Coast tonight into Wednesday, remaining elevated through the weekend. Wind gusts will peak around 30 to 50 mph, with strongest winds immediately along the coast and offshore.

- Gusty winds could lead to areas of blowing snow, with a Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from Utqiagvik (Barrow) east to Kaktovik Wednesday through Friday. Visibility could drop below one half mile, with blizzard conditions possible dependent on the magnitude of the blowing snow.

- Temperatures will hold steady overall before trending colder this weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits and teens. Coldest spots will drop to the single digits below zero.

SYNOPSIS

Quiet and dry conditions continue across much of Northern Alaska to start November, with high pressure shifting to the north and low pressure to the south. This setup will result in an enhanced pressure gradient over our region, leading to elevated east/northeast winds particularly across higher elevations and along the coast. In the Alaska Range, breezy southerly gap winds will persist through midweek. Snow showers will remain confined to the North Slope, Southwest Alaska, and St. Lawrence Island, with a rain/snow mix farther south. A front lifting northwest over the Interior on Wednesday will bring light snow and warmer temperatures. Elsewhere, dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds will prevail. Temperatures look to see a cooling trend to finish out the week, with coldest overnight lows where we see clear skies and light winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a northwest oriented ridge axis of high pressure extending from the Yukon towards the Chukchi Sea, with a series of low pressure systems working around this feature. The main two as of note out the gate is a low centered over the Beaufort Sea Coast and another out in the Central Bering, which will continue to bring snow chances across the North Slope and Southwest Alaska respectively. A rain/snow mix will also be possible farther south. Elsewhere, a mix of sun and clouds continues to prevail, with stubborn more persistent areas of low stratus across the North Slope and portions of the Interior.

Looking to the south, a 970 mb low moving north towards Southcentral will eject a front over the Alaska Range, with that front tracking northwest over the Interior throughout the day Wednesday. This front will force the high pressure overhead to the north, increasing the pressure gradient overhead with an emphasis along the Arctic Coast and through the Alaska Range passes. Have gone ahead with a Wind Advisory for the Eastern Alaska Range north of Trims Camp for Wednesday for gusts up to 65 mph, and a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday through Friday for areas of blowing snow and gusts around 30 to 50 mph. We may ultimately need to add Windy Pass and Delta Junction to the Wind Advisory dependent on how the strongest wind field develops, and in addition, we are monitoring the potential for blizzard conditions along the North Slope. As that front tracks northwest across the Interior, light snow will be possible, with amounts around a T-2" with highest totals favoring the mountains.

For Thursday, a series of shortwaves working along the Alcan Border, Arctic Coast, and West Coast, will help to keep precipitation chances going along those corridors as the Interior trends colder and drier. As the pressure gradient overhead weakens, strongest winds will shift to being along the coast as lighter winds return across the Interior. By late Thursday, another strong 960 mb low will lift north through the Gulf of Alaska, ejecting another front another front into the Yukon and into the Eastern Interior Thursday night into Friday. More details on that front below.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Strong winds along the Northeast Arctic Coast die down over the course of Friday, though the N/S pressure gradient will support wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range continue across the entire Arctic Coast through early next week. A series of weak shortwaves move over the region will bring some light snow, which could support periods of blizzard/near blizzard conditons along the Arctic Coast.

The best chance for snow in the Interior will be on Friday and Saturday as a low in the Gulf of Alaska moves northeast. GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions haven't agreed on the placement of this low, which will determine how much moisture is able to get into the Interior. The ECMWF solution favors a more northeasterly track over Yakutat, which would be much more favorable for Interior snow than the GFS's northerly track over Prince William Sound.

Model agreement is decent even beyond day 8 that a high over Siberia will keep our general pattern of lows continuing to track at/south of the Aleutians, shifting ridging in the Yukon/Eastern Interior as they move around the North Pacific and Gulf.

Coastal Hazard Potential... No significant concerns as the storm track remains south.

AFG WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AK...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM AKST Friday for AKZ803>805. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ849. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ805. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ806-810-856. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ807-860. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811-812- 857-858. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ811. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ813. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ813-817-859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814. Gale Warning from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ814-860. Brisk Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ815. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ816-851-855. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for PKZ852. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ852-854-861. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ857. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 PM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ859. Brisk Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ860. Brisk Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for PKZ861.