Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off showers continue through Thursday with additional rainfall amounts under 1/2" generally expected.

- Drier and cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and into the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will trend above normal into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Today - Thursday: On and Off Showers Continue

Continued rainfall is likely through Thursday as an upper-level closed low begins to manifest across the Upper Midwest as deterministic guidance suggests that this feature will slowly progress eastward over the next couple of days. As a result, the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) has very high probabilities (50-90%) for measurable rainfall during any 6-hr through Friday morning. Overall given the fairly weak forcing with the surface low overhead and the southerly moisture plume to our east, thinking that additional precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side with the grand ensemble (GEFS/EC/Canadian ensemble) only having medium probabilities (20-50%) for rainfall amounts over 0.5" for today through Thursday. In any case, with the frontal passage associated with the low pressure center moving through the region, temperatures will be noticeably cooler through Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

Friday - Sunday: Drier and Cooler

By the time Friday and the weekend rolls around, the upper-level low responsible for much of our showery pattern this week pushes into the eastern Great Lakes and allows for shortwave upper-level ridging to move into the Upper Midwest. Consequently, expecting skies to begin to clear late Friday and into Saturday. As a result, overnight lows will likely fall into the 20s for much of the region by Saturday morning with surface high pressure building into the region. However, in response to the upper-level ridging, would expect temperatures to gradually warm with highs returning in to the lower to middle 50s.

Early Next Week:

As we head into early next week, zonal to northwesterly flow with weak upper-level ridging for Monday will allow for some additional warming with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. However, as flow continues to turn more zonal to quasi-northwesterly, temperatures will likely remain steady-state, being slightly above normal. Additionally, with the absence of any profound shortwave troughing during this timeframe, the NBM unsurprisingly has minimal precipitation chances at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Temporary reprieve in widespread precipitation expected through the early overnight hours. Precipitation shifts east with the low center through the early morning hours, potentially persisting through much of Wednesday. Therefore, have returned IFR/LIFR impacts at both TAF sites through much of the 04.06Z TAF period.

Confidence in MVFR impacts eventually increases after the 04.06Z TAF terminus through Thursday morning. However, MVFR/IFR impacts may linger through Thursday with eventual confidence for VFR not until Friday.

ARX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WI...None. MN...None. IA...None.