Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

- Heat Risk: Heat indices will top out in the 103-106 degree range this Saturday afternoon. Take extra precautions with any extended or strenuous outdoor activities.

- Severe Weather Threat: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon and evening with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the main impact.

DISCUSSION

(This evening through Friday) Issued at 302 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

Our upper ridge of late over Texas and into Mexico is deteriorating as a closed low over Florida pushes westward toward the Northern Gulf Coast. This will transition our weather pattern and finally yield a return to scattered storm chances. Some storms may be strong to severe this afternoon into early evening with very hot temperatures to fuel the activity. The main threat will be gusty downburst winds. For Sunday into Monday, guidance brings the upper low further westward over the Northern Gulf Coast. This will allow for continued moisture to filter into the state. Low to medium chances for isolated to scattered convection will continue. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the low. Diurnal pop chances continue through mid week ahead of an approaching surface front/boundary. Beneficial rainfall is expected but does not look to be enough to make a large dent in the drought just yet. Guidance is looking more favorable for the weak front to make it through the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring much welcome more "normal" readings for this time of year into Central Alabama for the latter half of the week.

We continue to have a heat advisory in effect for much of Central Alabama for this afternoon and early evening through 8pm. Concern is for all of the outdoor activities and that it is much warmer than normal for this time of year (outlier event). While any convection will help to lower temperatures to bring some relief, outside of any storms will be toasty. Plan breaks accordingly. Today is expected to be the warmest day over the next 7 days. No additional heat advisories are anticipated to be necessary over the next week after today.

08

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 107 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites this afternoon and evening outside of convection. Moderate chance for scattered convection this afternoon and early evening is expected with a break down of the upper ridge. I have PROB30s going for all sites. There is a low to medium chance for MVFR patchy fog for EET/AUO late tonight toward sunrise. Only confident enough there for a mention ATTM. While gusty winds may occur with convection or outflows, winds will be generally light and variable otherwise.

08

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 35%. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend and continue into the middle of next week. Winds will remain light through the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-Coosa- Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lowndes- Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter- Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.