Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Low-end seabreeze showers/storms through Wednesday with lower confidence in precipitation after mid-week

- Above-average temperatures remain through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Mid-level high pressure... That's been the statement of the summer. While we continue this trend through the forecast period, closer to the surface, there is a tad bit more going on. Across the western Gulf, the tropical moisture that was advected into Texas in the past week has dispersed leaving much of the region with PWAT values below the 50th percentile for this time of year (1.3-1.5"). For that reason, there is higher confidence that seabreeze won't be as active for the remainder of the afternoon. A few streamer showers may push toward the upper Coastal Bend Sunday morning, and while PWATs climb back up to 1.7-2.0", there is not much support for organized showers/storms in terms of a lifting mechanism. Monday has a slightly better chance for showers thanks to any residual outflow from storms in North Texas approaching the Texas coast. The convergence of weak outflow winds approaching the seabreeze may trigger the seabreeze to be more active, but general confidence is low and thus capped PoPs Monday to 15-20%, with similar percentages along the coastal (seabreeze) through Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday, global models are showing a bit more northeasterly winds across much of the Southern US with a stronger NE to SW gradient over the Gulf. This fetch across the Gulf will gradually increase seas (3-4 ft), but additionally, this wind direction brings SLIGHTLY drier air through the coastal plains. For this reason, while there are 20-40% PoPs from Wednesday across South Texas, there is low confidence that this will actually play out due to a wetter bias from the NBM. My suspicion is that these PoPs will trend drier with subsequent model runs, but this will be dependent on the strength of the gradient across the Gulf. South of this easterly flow, Caribbean tropical moisture will round out the Yucatan Peninsula with the northeasterly flow bringing this moisture (and greater rain chances) more towards Mexico's Gulf coastline and closer to deep South Texas.

What will be guaranteed with high confidence is the 90/low 100 degree weather remaining in place through the forecast period. Before the slightly drier air moves in mid-week, the HeatRisk will climb to Major (level 3 of 4) with isolated areas of Extreme. Beyond mid-week, the overall extent of Major HeatRisk spatially decreases. That's the best Fall weather I can see on my side of things for now. You're more than welcome to autumnal-related drinks... as long as you step into the coffee shop for AC relief (but don't forget to supplement that hot drink with water for your hydration)!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF cycle can be expected. The only exception will be for patchy fog reducing VIS down to MVFR/IFR at KALI/KVCT.

MARINE

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

2-3 ft seas tonight will decrease to more 2 ft seas through Wednesday with light to gentle onshore winds becoming more moderate in the afternoons. Beyond mid-week, winds become more east/northeasterly with seas increasing back to 3-4 ft. Morning streamer showers possible through Tuesday with 20-40% percent chances for showers/storms after mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.