Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM - 8 PM Wednesday.

- Monitoring for impacts along the Middle Texas Coast from Tropical Storm Bertha.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Mid-level ridging will continue to promote widespread subsidence and hot, mainly dry conditions through Wednesday night/early Thursday. Rain chances are expected to remain minimal, with highs climbing into the 90s along the coast, with triple digits elsewhere. Low- level moisture will remain sufficient enough for peak heat index values to reach up to 110-113 degF, resulting in a continued moderate to major (levels 2/3- 4) HeatRisk. As a result, a Heat Advisory will be in effect on Wednesday throughout much of the CWA. With similar conditions expected on Thursday, an additional Heat Advisory will likely be needed.

We are continuing to monitor Tropical Storm Bertha across the northern Gulf. Bertha has strengthened some, but increasing northeasterly vertical wind shear has displaced the deepest convection to the south of the low-level center. While slight additional strengthening is possible through today, the combination of shear, dry air entrainment, and eventual land interaction along the Louisiana Coast is expected to promote gradual weakening by late week.

The latest guidance continues to keep the center north of us, with the most significant impacts expected from southeast Louisiana eastward. However, the westward extent of the storm's tropical moisture is causing some uncertainty. Given this, low rain chances have been maintained along the Coastal Bend late this week to account for any outer rain bands. At this time, any rainfall is expected to remain isolated to scattered with minimal accumulations. Even with Bertha likely remaining to our north, we will still see impacts in the way of increasing easterly swell, an elevated risk of rip currents, and higher surf this weekend.

By early next week, we are looking at dry conditions returning and above-normal temperatures persisting as ridging reestablishes itself across the south-central CONUS. High temperatures will generally be in the 90s along the coast with triple digits inland.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Moderate south to southeasterly winds of 10 knots or less will continue across all terminals into the evening. Winds are expected to diminish tonight and will be lowest around 13-14z areawide. Added a low confidence TEMPO for MVFR CIGs in COT due to very light and variable winds in the early morning hours.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south-southeasterly flow is forecast for the next several days, and rain chances through midweek will be very low (<10%). By Thursday, confidence in the forecast decreases slightly as we will be monitoring for impacts associated with Tropical Storm Bertha. Regardless of the eventual track and strength of this system, we are expecting increasing wave heights, winds, and isolated to scattered rain chances. However, details will continue to be refined with subsequent forecasts as we receive increased observational data. By late weekend into early next week, dry conditions return as well as a fresh (BF 5) breeze developing along the coast south of Port Aransas in the afternoons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ229>234- 239>244-246-247-347.

GM...None.